Betting on Premier League: Gameweek 24

Betting on Premier League: Gameweek 24

This article is part of our Betting on Soccer series.

League play is slowing down, but more than half of Premier League teams have midweek FA Cup matches. Not all teams will put in their top rosters, but it's still something that will add to fatigue and could add to the already large injury lists (West Ham lost Angelo Ogbonna, Issa Diop and Andriy Yarmolenko on Tuesday). I'll look at Gameweek 24 with the hope that there aren't any massive injuries midweek. 

LAST WEEK

The biggest takeaway from last weekend is that I didn't have a good reading on a lot of matches and most of the bets I took didn't hit. I somehow won a Newcastle bet, but everything else didn't work out as well. Man City couldn't keep Liverpool off the score-sheet, while somehow both Burnley and Brighton scored in the same match. Making things worse, I had gut feelings for Aston Villa over Arsenal and Sheffield United +1 against Chelsea, but avoided making them my official plays. We move forward.

THE WEEK AHEAD

There's a glaring number in the first match of the gameweek with Liverpool a +106 away favorite against Leicester City. Liverpool dominated the first meeting and don't play midweek, but the odds seem off given how they're playing. Leicester are +163 for a draw no bet, with the main worry being recent results because Liverpool have easily won the last couple meetings, including the last three trips to Leicester.

I may bet on both teams to not score in every Burnley match the rest of the way even though they screwed me last weekend. Their style of play leads to a lot of 1-0 results, which is what happened when they beat Crystal Palace earlier in the season. You can get both of them not to score at -132, much better than under 2.5 goals at -167.

Tottenham beat Man City 2-0 in November, but they converted their only two shots on target and Man City dominated every other aspect. With the way Man City are playing, getting them at plus odds to win to nil against anyone may be the best way to go. They're +123 to beat Tottenham to nil and I'm comfortable taking that even with Harry Kane back. Tottenham's lack of opportunities combined with the way Man City's back line is playing is a decent enough reason to take a win to nil.

For Sunday's opener, it's a battle between an out-of-form Southampton and a Wolves team playing for scoreless draws. I'm tentative because Wolves had 20 shots in the first meeting, but they were healthier in that matchup, a 1-1 draw. I think both will be fine with another point in this game, and while +220 is tempting for a draw, you can get both teams not to score a -114. The reason that won't hit is because neither team will play defense and each will have multiple goals. 

Man United appear to be a perfect parlay candidate at -315 to beat West Brom, but don't forget about their recent loss to Sheffield United. The Red Devils are clearly the better team, but they're always susceptible to bad teams when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer rotates his lineup.

Instead of focusing on sides, you can get over 2.5 goals at -190 as a parlay piece. Maybe Man United struggle when you least expect it, but when that happens, there are usually goals on both sides. If you take both teams to score, it's -118.

Elsewhere, Sunday features a couple games I'm not sure what to make of. It feels like Everton and Fulham will be defensively, but they played to a 3-2 result in the first meeting. The same goes for Arsenal and Leeds because while it seems like Leeds are always in high-scoring matches, it was a scoreless draw in the first matchup. While that may not happen again, you can get both teams not to score at +143, which seems a little high given that first game and that Arsenal have played well in the back over the last month.

A lot of people will be inclined for a money line parlay on the two home sides Monday, but I'm not confident in West Ham against a feisty Sheffield United team. If anything, West Ham pk at -335 is the smarter move, or if you're really into Sheffield United, they're -162 at +1. I think both teams will struggle to get quality chances and that leads to both to not score at -122.

Either way, it's safe to parlay anything with Chelsea -375 to beat Newcastle. Chelsea to win to nil is +105, which doesn't seem right since Callum Wilson is unlikely to play. I think Chelsea will dominate possession like they have in prior contests under Thomas Tuchel and they could rack up goals in a big win. They're +163 to win both halves and -2 is +135. If it's a true blowout, Chelsea -3 is +400.

THE BETS

Burnley/Crystal Palace both won't score -132

Manchester City win to nil against Tottenham +123

Arsenal/Leeds both won't score +143

Chelsea to win to nil against Newcastle +105

Parlay: Man United win -315, Arsenal win or draw -420, Everton win or draw -435, West Ham win or draw -500 = +167

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's assistant soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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