Drake's Takes: UFC Vegas 61 Dern vs. Yan

Drake's Takes: UFC Vegas 61 Dern vs. Yan

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

Guido Cannetti (9-7-0) v. Randy Costa (6-3-0)

Guido Cannetti - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 35" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/wrestling 
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins

Randy Costa - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: Cannetti will have a wrestler's chance in this one but will likely struggle to get this to the mat. Costa will have a considerable advantage on the feet and should dominate volume to a decision if he does not find an early knockout. Costa makes for a solid cash and GPP play.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Costa

Julija Stoliarenko (10-7-1) v. Chelsea Chandler (4-1-0)

Julija Stoliarenko - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus/grappling wrestling 
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins

Chelsea Chandler - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 4 wins

DFS Perspective: Chandler will win her debut if she keeps this fight on the feet. If she engages in a grappling match, she risks getting caught in an arm bar. Stoliarenko will have the edge on the mat, and I expect her to get it there at some point and end this one early. I would not trust either in cash and would only recommend Stoliarenko for GPP.                

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Stoliarenko

Maxim Grishin (32-9-2) v. Philipe Lins (15-5-0)

Maxim Grishin - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 22 finishes in 32 wins

Philipe Lins - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: I see Grishin slowing the pace in this fight and making it a boring 15 minutes. Lins will likely look to push the tempo, but I do not think he finds much success and could get into early trouble. Grishin is the play, but I do not see a high score coming out of this fight.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Grishin

Krzysztof Jotko (24-5-0) v. Brendan Allen (19-5-0)

Krzysztof Jotko - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 7 finishes in 24 wins

Brendan Allen - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts. They are pretty evenly matched on the feet, but Allen should have the edge on the mat. I expect Allen to start fast and take over early. Give me Allen in cash and GPP contests.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Allen

Joaquim Silva (11-4-0) v. Jesse Ronson (21-11-0, 1NC)

Joaquim Silva - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins

Jesse Ronson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins

DFS Perspective: Ronson looked awful in his last fight, and until I see him perform better, I will take his opponent. Silva should have a significant edge on the feet and could find an early knockout. Silva is an excellent play for cash and GPP.                

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Silva

Jessica Penne (14-7-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0)

Jessica Penne - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins

Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be a 15-minute wrestling match. Penne is the veteran and is always live for control or a submission. Ricci is a fast starter and has excellent strength for her size. This should come down to whoever finds top control first, and I think that will be Ricci. I would not trust either in cash contests, but both are live for GPP.               

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Ricci

Ilir Latifi (16-8-0, 1NC) v. Aleksei Oleinik (60-16-1)

Ilir Latifi - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins

Aleksei Oleinik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 55 finishes in 60 wins

DFS Perspective: Latifi is a wrestler, but he would be wise to keep this fight on the feet. Oleinik, who earned his 60th win in his last fight, is an elite grappler and likely winds up with another submission if this hits the mat. Give me Oleinik to get his 61st win, again via submission.               

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Oleinik

Mike Davis (9-2-0) v. Viacheslav Borshchev (6-2-0)

Mike Davis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins

Slava Borshchev - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to be a striking match for as long as it lasts. Borshchev will need to find a big shot early as he will likely get out-volumed by quite a bit. Davis will have a significant edge in volume and speed and should win this fight handily. Davis makes for a solid play in cash and GPP. Borshchev can be used as a dart throw in GPP, given his ability to finish fights.               

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Davis

John Castaneda (19-5-0) v. Daniel Santos (10-2-0)

John Castaneda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins

Daniel Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight is at a catchweight. Castaneda should be better everywhere the fight goes. If he runs into trouble on the feet, I expect him to move to his wrestling, where he should have a massive advantage. Santos will need to find something big to win this one. Castaneda can be used in cash and GPP contests.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Castaneda

Sodiq Yusuff (12-2-0) v. Don Shainis (12-3-0)

Sodiq Yusuff - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins

Don Shainis - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: Shainis is making his debut and looks like a decent contender. He will have an advantage in grappling if he gets control on the mat. However, Yusuff should be better everywhere and is the card's biggest favorite. Yusuff is an excellent play for cash but would need an early finish for GPP contests, given his price.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Yusuff

Raoni Barcelos (16-3-0) v. Trevin Jones (13-8-0, 1NC)

Raoni Barcelos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins

Trevin Jones - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: Jones will need a knockout to win this fight. Barcelos throws twice the volume and is the better wrestler/grappler. I expect Barcelos to finish this early or dominate a 15-minute decision, making him safe for cash and GPP contests.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Barcelos

Randy Brown (15-4-0) v. Francisco Trinaldo (28-8-0)

Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins

Francisco Trinaldo - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 28 wins

DFS Perspective: Trinaldo has reached the judge's scorecards in five of his last six fights and continues to be a part of slower-paced fights. Brown will push the tempo, throw more volume and should find an early finish. Brown should score well with an early finish or in a decision and is a solid play for cash and GPP contests.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Brown

Mackenzie Dern (12-2-0) v. Xiaonan Yan (15-3-0, 1NC)

Mackenzie Dern - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling 
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins

Yan Xiaonan - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: The fight should be close on the feet, with Yan having a slight edge in volume. Dern will have a considerable advantage on the mat, being one of, if not the, best grapplers in the division. Dern has proved she is one of the division's top ladies, and I expect her to eventually find another submission in this one. Give me Dern for cash and GPP contests.              

UFC Vegas 61 Pick: Dern

 

For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our DraftKings MMA preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.

FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MMA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MMA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
DraftKings MMA: UFC 282 DFS Preview
DraftKings MMA: UFC 282 DFS Preview
UFC Orlando DFS Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Orlando DFS Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
Drake's Takes: UFC Orlando Thompson vs. Holland
Drake's Takes: UFC Orlando Thompson vs. Holland
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds, and Predictions for UFC Orlando
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds, and Predictions for UFC Orlando
DraftKings MMA: UFC Orlando DFS Preview
DraftKings MMA: UFC Orlando DFS Preview
UFC Vegas 65 DFS Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Vegas 65 DFS Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup