Drake's Takes: DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 59 Santos vs. Hill

Drake's Takes: DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 59 Santos vs. Hill

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

Mayra Bueno Silva (8-2-1) v. Stephanie Egger (7-2-0)

Mayra Bueno Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling 
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins

Stephanie Egger - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins

DFS Perspective: Somebody should flip the betting odds to Silva being the favorite. Egger is a one-trick pony, continually looking for throws to set up submissions on the mat. She offers little on the feet and struggles in the open ring. Silva should smash on the feet and has the takedown defense to avoid the majority of the throws or slams Egger will attempt. She also has a bit of grappling in her back pocket. Silva is the better fighter and should win. I like her for cash and GPP contests.                               

UFC 277 Pick: Silva

Cory McKenna (6-2-0) v. Miranda Granger (7-2-0)

Cory McKenna - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 58" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins

Miranda Granger - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins

DFS Perspective: McKenna will be at a size disadvantage but should be the better striker and wrestler. She should look for a quick takedown and get into top control to control rounds. Granger offers little on the feet but will have an advantage in size and grappling. She has been more of a finisher, but those finishes have come against lesser competition. These odds should be a little closer, with both ladies having a path to victory, but I agree with McKenna being the favorite. I do not see a high score coming out of this fight and will likely avoid it for DFS purposes. 

UFC 277 Pick: McKenna

Jason Witt (19-8-0) v. Josh Quinlan (5-0-0, 1NC)

Jason Witt - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins

Josh Quinlan - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins

DFS Perspective: Witt's only path to victory is snaring the neck of Quinlan in a grappling exchange. He has horrible defensive tendencies, and I expect Quinlan to exploit them. Quinlan will have a massive edge on the feet and can match Witt on the mat. I expect a quick finish, with Quinlan finding something early. He is a solid play in cash and GPP contests. Witt can be used as a GPP dart throw in mass entry tournaments for that hail mary submission.                              

UFC 277 Pick: Quinlan

Bryan Battle (8-1-0) v. Takashi Sato (16-6-0)

Bryan Battle - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins

Takashi Sato - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: Sato has been far from impressive in his UFC stint, and this could end up being his last fight in the promotion. He tends to start slow without much output and struggles off his back. On the other hand, Battle starts fast and should be better everywhere, particularly on the mat with his grappling. He is dropping a weight class, so weigh-ins need to be watched, but he should control this fight anywhere it goes and is safe for cash and GPP contests.                              

UFC 277 Pick: Battle

Terrance McKinney (12-4-0) v. Erick Gonzalez (14-6-0)

Terrance McKinney - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins

Erick Gonzalez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins

DFS Perspective: Gonzalez was knocked out in his UFC debut, and I expect that to happen again in this fight. McKinney is the biggest favorite on the card and is in a smash spot. His three UFC fights have all ended in the first round, and this one has a good chance of ending that way as well. He will be better everywhere and can finish on the feet or the mat. Gonzalez will likely struggle to get anything going. McKinney is a safe play for cash and GPP. However, he likely needs a first-round finish to hit value.                               

UFC 277 Pick: McKinney

Sam Alvey (33-17-1, 1NC) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-5-0, 1NC)

Sam Alvey - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling 
~ 22 finishes in 33 wins

Michal Oleksiejczuk - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Alvey is 0-7-1 in his last eight fights, and you have to imagine the end of the line comes with another loss. He is still a well-rounded fighter but does not seem to have much left in the tank. Oleksiejczuk will have an edge on the feet with volume and power. If he comes out fast and with a purpose, I think he scores an early knockout. We are probably looking at a low-scoring decision if he fights defensively. I like Oleksiejczuk to win but prefer him in GPP contests. 

UFC 277 Pick: Oleksiejczuk

Ariane Lipski (14-7-0) v. Priscila Cachoeira (11-4-0)

Ariane Lipski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling 
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins

Priscila Cachoeira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet. Both ladies square up well in striking, with Cachoeira having slightly more volume and power. However, Lipski would have a significant edge on the mat if she chooses to take it there. I like Cachoeira the longer this stays on the feet, making her a solid GPP play. With her takedowns and control potential, Lipski is the safer play for cash contests.                               

UFC 277 Pick: Lipski

Augusto Sakai (15-4-1) v. Sergey Spivac (14-3-0)

Augusto Sakai - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling 
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins

Sergey Spivac - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins

DFS Perspective: Sakai has not looked good in three consecutive fights, getting knocked out in each and struggling to get anything going. He is a high-volume striker and will need to keep this fight on the feet as he struggles mightily off his back. Spivac has the volume and power to keep up with Sakai on the feet but would hold a significant edge on the mat. I expect him to come out fast, find a takedown, and rain nasty ground and pound, leading to another early exit for Sakai. Spivac is an excellent play for cash and GPP contests.                              

UFC 277 Pick: Spivac

Brogan Walker (8-2-0) v. Juliana Miller (3-1-0)

Brogan Walker - Height: 5'4" - Reach: N/A - Switch
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling 
~ 1 finishes in 7 wins

Juliana Miller - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 3 wins

DFS Perspective: Walker is a volume striker who has fought good competition and has solid defense. Miller is a wild striker with excellent grappling. Walker has more experience and is my pick to get her hand raised. I would not trust either in cash contests, but either could be used as GPP punts.                               

UFC 277 Pick: Walker

Mohammed Usman (8-2-0) v. Zac Pauga (6-0-0)

Mohammed Usman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins

Zac Pauga - Height: 6'0" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 3 wins

DFS Perspective: Usman is a well-rounded fighter but has lacked power in his striking. He has solid grappling and will look to get the fight to the mat early. Pauga will have an edge in volume and power and will be looking to apply constant forward pressure to keep the fight on the feet. I have not seen enough from Usman to believe he can win this fight, so my lean is with Pauga. I would only use either in GPP contests.                               

UFC 277 Pick: Pauga

Vicente Luque (21-8-1) v. Geoff Neal (14-4-0)

Vicente Luque - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 19 finishes in 21 wins

Geoff Neal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins

DFS Perspective: Potential fight of the night and absolute banger alert. Luque and Neal are two high-profile fighters, and I expect most of this fight to play out on the feet. Luque will throw more volume while mixing in kicks and could mix in his grappling if needed. Neal tends to load up a bit more and throw more power shots. Luque should overwhelm Neal early and likely find an early finish, so long as he avoids getting clipped by Neal. Neal makes a solid GPP dart throw while Luque is safe for cash and GPP contests.                              

UFC 277 Pick: Luque

Thiago Santos (22-10-0) v. Jamahal Hill (10-1-0, 1NC)

Thiago Santos - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins

Jamahal Hill - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: Santos is in a rapid decline, having lost four of the last five, and has not been the same since his injury. Once a top fighter, he has unfortunately seen a drop in volume and power and has become more hittable. Hill is quickly rising through the ranks with his impressive volume and power. He has won his two in a row by knockout in the first round. I predict a similar showing here. Hill will be the one pressuring forward and should find that kill shot at some point, making him an excellent play in cash and GPP contests.                              

UFC 277 Pick: Hill

FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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