Betting on Golf: RBC Heritage

Betting on Golf: RBC Heritage

This article is part of our Betting on Golf series.

RBC Heritage Betting Strategy

The RBC Heritage is back in its traditional spot on the schedule after being shifted to June last year due to the pandemic. The schedule change brought out the strongest field in the event's history, and Webb Simpson (30-1 odds) rode a hot putter to a one-stroke win over Abraham Ancer and the tournament scoring record at 22-under-par.

This year's list of players isn't too shabby, either, as it is headlined by world No. 1 Dustin Johnson and includes five of the top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. If you dig the long ball, it's likely that Harbour Town isn't one of your favorite courses on Tour. It ranks among the top 10 shortest courses on Tour on a yearly basis, making it a welcome stop for golfers who are shorter off the tee. Coupled with some of the smallest greens on Tour, iron play and tidy work around the greens will be key factors this week. It's a true testament that shorter courses can be difficult tests, and in the last 10 tournaments held the week after The Masters, the winner finished 15-under-par or better only once.

All odds via the DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET.

Course History

The following five players, with a minimum of three appearances, have the lowest score relative to par at the RBC Heritage since 2016:

Kuchar has feasted at Harbour Town more than anyone else over the last five years, with a runner-up finish and two other top-12 results over that stretch. The winner of this event back in 2014, Kuchar is moderately priced at 45-1 odds and surprisingly outside the top 15 choices on the board. He's also rounding into better form, posting a T12 result at the Valero Texas Open and following that up with a third-place result at the Match Play event. Another player who should have good vibes this week is Hatton, who finished T3 last year with three rounds of 66 or better to close the event. Hatton, at 22-1 odds, seems slightly underpriced despite a top-20 finish last week at Augusta – a place he has historically struggled at.

Approach at Will

The following players gained the most strokes on approach over their last five tournaments: 

Hoffman has been one of the hottest golfers on Tour over the last two months, and he's done it with elite iron play, ranking top-10 in Strokes Gained: Approach in each of his last four tournaments. He recorded two top-10s at the RBC Heritage over his last nine appearances, though his last one came in 2013. Speaking of golfers in good form, Conners has been a fixture near the top of leaderboards since the start of the Florida Swing. He comes into the week at 23-1 odds, and considering he doesn't rely on driver length, he is a good fit for the course.

Outright Picks

Matthew Fitzpatrick (21-1)

Fitzpatrick has won six times on the European Tour but is still in search of his first PGA Tour win. If there's a place for him to collect his first victory, Harbour Town should be atop of the list. His proclaimed favorite stop of the year, he recorded two top-15 results in his last three appearances here, and his short-game prowess has him checking all the necessary boxes to contend.

Daniel Berger (23-1)

Berger has had success at Pete Dye-designed courses, including a T3 after shooting four rounds in the 60s here last summer. He seems a bit underpriced as the eighth choice on the board. He missed the cut at The Masters, but he has missed only two cuts since the beginning of 2020, and he's responded in the following week with a runner-up and a win at Pebble Beach in February.

Chris Kirk (60-1)

You won't find many players that have had a better 2021 than Kirk, who has finished top-20 in over half of his events, including a runner-up at the Sony Open. He's coming off a great showing at the Valero Texas Open in which he played the weekend 9-under-par, and is a good fit for the course as a strong iron player with solid play around the green. It's only a matter of time before he wins again.

Top-10 Picks

Brendon Todd (6-1)

Todd is one of the shortest hitters on Tour but also one of the most accurate, so this should be a good fit for him. He hasn't been near the top of leaderboards all that often lately, making him a better fit for a top-10 pick than an outright win bet. Todd has recorded a top-5 finish here, and both his wins in 2019 came at courses under 7,100 yards.

Lucas Glover (7-1)

Glover struggled through much of 2020 but seems to have officially turned the corner, making five straight cuts and notching a fourth-place finish at TPC San Antonio. A native of South Carolina who played in the state collegiately, Glover has as much experience at Harbour Town as anyone in the field. He makes for a sneaky dark horse this week.

Chez Reavie (12-1)

Reavie's best result this year came at Pebble Beach – another short course – where he finished tied for 16th. He recorded three top-10 results last year and is another good course fit, ranking outside the top- 00 in distance but top-10 in driving accuracy. He's certainly worth a flyer at this price.

Head-to-Head Picks

Shane Lowry (-120) over Ian Poulter

Lowry has mostly struggled since winning his first major a little less than two years ago, but he has shown signs of his prior form of late. He held the 36-hole lead in this event in 2019 before settling for a share of third. Meanwhile, Poulter isn't in good form, with as many missed cuts as made cuts this year. He has yet to record a top-25 finish on the PGA Tour in 2021.

Doug Ghim (-109) over Sebastian Munoz

Ghim is an up-and-comer who has played well this year, having been in the second-to-last pairing at TPC Sawgrass – a similar Dye design. Munoz has played a lot of golf recently, and this will be his eighth start in nine weeks. This seems like a spot where he will run out of gas, making Ghim a good value play as a slight underdog.

Collin Morikawa (-125) over Will Zalatoris

It will be interesting to see how Zalatoris follows up what had to be a draining week at Augusta in which he received more media attention than ever before. In this head-to-head matchup, Morikawa is the better iron player, less reliant on driving distance and more accurate off the tee. There aren't a lot of spots I'd choose to fade Zalatoris, but this is one of them.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Pohle
Ryan Pohle breaks down golf bets and covers college basketball for RotoWire.
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