This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
Last week, we covered 10 hitters off to slow starts and theorized whether we should be concerned or patient with certain guys. This week we have a bit of a larger sample size to try and conclude about pitchers in similar scenarios. Of course, it's still only mid-April, but is there something we can see in these 10 guys to conclude either way? Let's take a look.
Aaron Nola, PHI
It's not a velocity issue with Nola, so how do we explain his 6.46 ERA in three starts? His 7.6 K/9 is well off last year's 9.5, and his walk rate has nearly doubled – from a 2.5 BB/9 to 4.7 this year. He's generating swinging strikes at just an 8.1 percent rate, well off the league average of 11.1, and even further off his 12.4 percent mark from a year ago. Much of the ERA is due to his allowing five home runs in 15.1 innings, as of his 15 fly balls, five have gone out of the yard for a 33.3 percent HR/FB rate, well above the league average that usually hovers in the 11 percent range. That number will obviously come down, and we have to expect the control and command to improve. Nola's 2018 ERA (2.37) likely wasn't repeatable, as it came with a 2.95 FIP, but clearly the HR/FB rate will drop, and after walking just one in 6.1 innings last time out, the walk rate will most likely drop significantly as the year