Favorite Mid-Round Bargains With Stable ADP Trends
Written By: Howard Bender
With the season going into full-swing as of Sunday night, this will be the last look at some of the recent and relevant ADP trends for those of you who still need to draft. Earlier in the week, we looked at some nice late-round bargains and then Friday we took a final look at how the top-50 overall were shaping up, so it’s only fitting that we wrap things up with a look at the middle. Your first six to eight picks usually set the tone for your draft while your last few are usually reserved for late-round fliers or potential sleeper picks. The middle, however, is the meat of your draft and can be the battleground where your season is won or lost.
With the real Opening Day…er….I mean….Night…..coming on Sunday, any leagues that haven’t drafted yet are cramming them in over the next three days. So this figures to be a big weekend for many of us in the fantasy baseball community. If you’re still waiting to draft, then the ADP trends that we have been witnessing over the last month are going to be important for you. Earlier in the week I went over some late-round options you may want to consider, so today we’re going to focus on those first few rounds.
As spring training winds down, we’re in crunch time for drafts. With the exception of a few position battles that may or may not be even be decided until the season actually opens, you’ve probably got all the information you’re going to get. You know who’s doing what this spring and what the expectations are heading into the season. In addition to that, you’ve hopefully done a number of mock drafts and have studied the bulk of the ADP data and trends we’ve been discussing since January. It’s a lot to digest, but the payoff in the end is nothing short of spectacular. There’s really nothing better than bringing home a championship and really sticking it to your friends and colleagues.
Looking at ADP risers and fallers in the NFBC is a great way to look at some of the trends from your more hardcore fantasy players, but it doesn’t always prepare you for some of those more-casual leagues where reaches tend to be a lot greater. Hardcore fantasy players usually have the good sense to not overreact to spring numbers or rumors and/or news coming out of either Florida or Arizona. The ADP over at Mock Draft Central often gives us a better look at what the casual fantasy players are thinking – who they like, who they don’t and who is gaining or losing in popularity amongst the masses. Earlier in the night we were taking a look at the top-10 ADP risers at MDC over the last two weeks; the popular kids, if you will. Now we’re going to pay some mind to that “loser” over there in the corner; to those kids who are shunned by the popular kids and are cast aside. With the help of the ADP trend report, we are now going to look at the 10 biggest ADP fallers.
Remember back in high school when your class elections were going down? People weren’t necessarily voting for the person whom they thought would do the best job. They were voting for the person they liked the most. It was a popularity contest, not a political election. Well, sometimes when assessing your fantasy baseball draft plan, you need to look at players much in the same way. Not that you’re selecting them based on their popularity, but adjusting your strategy based on it. The more popular they are the higher the auction bid and the higher some people may be willing to reach for them in snake drafts. With the help of the trend report on Mock Draft Central, a good gauge for player popularity amongst the masses, we’re going to check and see just who would have earned a place on the student council had they been in fantasy baseball high school right now.
The old adage is, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” Well, it’s no different in the fantasy baseball community. Each and every year, there is always one group of players whom the fantasy writers latch onto and write about and those players, subsequently become the hottest commodities of the draft season. The names are always different, but the buzz about them is always the same and consequently, the fantasy community becomes obsessed with drafting them.
It’s time to talk a little starting pitcher ADP right now which seems appropriate considering the debates we’ve been hearing lately with regard to when you start drafting starters. You’ve got those you firmly stand by using higher picks to grab elite hurlers as they are supposed to be the most consistent/predictable, while the other side of the coin, which tends to be where the majority lie, is that the position is so deep, so rich with talent, that you can and should wait on it while you build your offense up to juggernaut level.
We’ve gone through the recent ADP trends in the infield, so it’s time to head on out to the grass and check in with the trends we’ve recently seen in the outfield. I have to say, this position is one of the trickier ones to draft well if you don’t act quickly. That’s not to say that the position isn’t deep and rich with talent, because it is, but as I’ve seen with the obscene number of mock drafts I have done this spring, those who act quickest to fill their outfield, tend to have some of the stronger teams come the end of the draft.
When I was growing up and playing baseball, I lived behind the plate. While the guys on the mound and the ones who played the infield got most of the attention, there was nothing I loved more than being the unassuming presence behind the mask. Sure, some of the kids poked fun and said that I was back there because I had the speed of a three-legged turtle, but the coaches always made me feel better when they told me that, in little league, you put your best athletes at shortstop and your smartest behind the plate. I took a lot of solace in that and continued to spend my time emulating the likes of Thurman Munson and Johnny Bench.
If you thought the second base position’s ADP was stagnant, just wait until you look at the shortstops. Not only is the order of players drafted relatively unchanged, but the ADP numbers really aren’t fluctuating too much either. There’s very little movement at the top end of the rankings and while there’s some ADP change near the bottom, the only fantasy owners who will likely be affected are the ones who are in the deepest of AL or NL-only leagues. Even deep mixed league owners won’t have too much change with which to be concerned as the position sits a little deeper than it has been in recent years and few people are forced to fish through the dregs at the bottom of the barrel.