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Late ADP Trends: Top 15 Fallers in Standard Leagues

Written By: Howard Bender on 9/2/2013 1:09 PM

When last we left you on Friday, we were looking at the top 10 ADP risers in NFL standard scoring leagues. Now with final roster cuts made and teams settling in on position battles, things are taking an even better shape for those who still haven’t drafted. Today we’re going to look at the top 15 ADP fallers in NFL standard scoring leagues. Why 15 and not 10? Because a few extra names wouldn’t hurt, especially when some in the top 15 are only there because of injury. It doesn’t take a world of analysis to know that someone is falling down on draft boards because he broke his leg, right?

So let’s just get to it here…

Player Pos Team Current ADP Change 1 Wk Ago Change 2 Wks Ago Overall Trend
LeVeon Bell RB PIT 69.36 -0.90% 68.73 -21.40% 54.04 -22.10%
Matthew Stafford QB DET 93.38 -6.40% 87.42 -16.80% 72.76 -22.10%
Andre Brown RB NYG 95.36 -17.70% 78.52 -1.50% 77.32 -18.90%
Tony Romo QB DAL 109.31 -5.10% 103.72 -9.80% 93.56 -14.40%
Drew Brees QB NO 14.31 -9.90% 12.90 -3.60% 12.44 -13.10%
Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 125.21 -10.50% 112.09 -1.20% 110.72 -11.60%
Coby Fleener TE IND 136.44 -7.70% 125.89 -2.40% 122.82 -10.00%
Arian Foster RB HOU 6.33 30.00% 8.23 -30.50% 5.72 -9.60%
Robbie Gould K CHI 233.68 -10.10% 210.11 0.60% 211.36 -9.60%
Robert Griffin QB WAS 116.28 2.10% 118.70 -11.20% 105.42 -9.30%
Cecil Shorts WR JAX 60.08 -6.90% 55.91 -2.00% 54.80 -8.80%
Marcedes Lewis TE JAX 148.44 -7.10% 137.89 -1.30% 136.14 -8.30%
Terrance Williams WR DAL 228.51 -8.00% 210.14 0.00% 210.10 -8.10%
Dwayne Allen TE IND 136.41 -8.80% 124.35 1.00% 125.54 -8.00%
Jimmy Graham TE NO 21.51 -1.50% 21.19 -6.50% 19.82 -7.90%

While it’s not much of a surprise to see Le’Veon Bell still falling in drafts right now, especially because of the nature of his foot sprain, but don’t let him fall too far as the latest word still has him back before the Steelers’ Week 5 bye. The team showed even more confidence in his return by releasing Jonathan Dwyer as no sane coach would ever rely on Isaac Redman and LaRod Stephens-Howling without figuring Bell would be back soon, right?

We’re going to see a few quarterbacks in this section here, so let’s just get to them, all at once. The general drop that we’re seeing for guys like Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, Tony Romo and even Robert Griffin have more to do with owners waiting on a very deep position combined with leagues that devalue the quarterback with four points for a passing touchdown rather than six. With Griffin, there are some concerns with regard to his health, but there’s really no reason for the drop we see from the others. It’s just going to be a matter of reading the rest of your league when it comes to how a quarterback is valued and you just might have to play it by ear. My recent ADP article on QBs should be of some help.

Two fallers due to injury include Andre Brown (fractured leg) and Jonathan Stewart (ankle, foot). They’re saying that Brown’s fracture isn’t as serious as originally thought, but he’s still out four to six weeks and exactly what his role will be when he does return will be determined then. David Wilson has the opportunity to thrive in the Giants’ offense and could keep Brown on the sidelines even when he is finally healthy. As for Stewart, he’s on the PUP list and isn’t able to return until Week 7 at the earliest, but unless DeAngelo Williams is in the midst of a career, breakout season, you can expect Stewart to start poaching carries and goal-line work as soon as he is able.

Colts tight end Coby Fleener has seen a 10.0-percent drop over the last two weeks as he’s been dealing with a concussion. Dwayne Allen, who is also listed here but with a slightly smaller drop, had an ankle injury of his own that he had been dealing with, but Fleener’s case appeared more serious which is why folks stopped drafting him. However, as of Monday, September 2, Fleener returned to full practice and seems ready to resume his place on the field. The two-TE formations are going to be big in Indianapolis, so it’s still a little early to determine which of the two will actually see more targets.

The 9.6-percent drop in ADP ranking for Arian Foster translates to just a pick, maybe two, so he’s still a first-round commodity. His talent level is huge, but so is his injury risk. His heart last season, his back this season, he’s potentially a ticking time bomb, so be careful. View him as a first-round player, but make sure you handcuff him to Ben Tate. Drafting Foster and not having Tate is far too risky right now.

Very interesting seeing Robbie Gould here as it’s hard to see kickers really rising or falling much in this game. Maybe it was Gould’s calf injury that sidelined him late last year, but overall, he fine and good to go. Personally, I like to go for kickers who have a dome at their home stadium, but that’s just me.

Cecil Shorts has taken a bit of a hit in value, likely due to the calf injury he’s been dealing with in practice, but the drop in ADP isn’t all that substantial. The 8.8-percent drop only amounts to about half a dozen picks. But don’t wait on him too long as he is back to full health and ready to resume his role as the number one Jaguars receiver. With Justin Blackmon suspended for the first four weeks, Shorts is expected to see puh-lenty of targets.

Marcedes Lewis, on the other hand, has also been dealing with a calf injury, and while he should be ready for Week 1, the number of targets he usually sees (even with Blackmon suspended) can be so minimal and/or erratic that he cannot be trusted as a number one tight end. Look elsewhere in your draft.

Cowboys receiver Terrance Williams is barely on the radar and he continues to drop. He’s got a starting job apparently which has pushed Miles Austin into the slot, but he’s still the fourth option behind Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Austin. No need to draft here.

And finally, Jimmy Graham drops a touch – just 7.9-percent which is just two or three picks really. He’s not dropping for any reason other than personal preference and he remains the number one fantasy tight end.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

 

By sucyyuan, 1/14/2014 6:45 PM
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