When it comes to ADP trend analysis, there’s no position easier to track than shortstop. Why? Because there’s barely been any real movement. When a position is as thin as it is, drafting can be pretty simple. The paranoia that “position scarcity” causes forces owners to take the most talented at the position fairly early, but once the top six are off the board, the drop-offs in ADP become fairly substantial. As you’ll see from the table below, the drop may start off slowly, but before you’re even out of the top 10, you’ve stopped looking for a shortstop until roughly the 10th round and even then, you can probably wait a little longer.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t learn a little something more than just “you can wait a while on the position if you don’t grab a top five guy.” There are probably a few interesting tidbits to be found. So let’s take a look at the ADP trend report according to the NFBC data, match it up with the ADP found at Mock Draft Central, and see what we can find…
|Rank||Player||Team||Current ADP||1 Week Ago||Trend||MDC ADP||%Diff|
As you can see, the biggest swing in either direction comes from St. Louis back-up Ronny Cedeno who has seen a 1.98% increase in ADP over the past week. But let’s face it – you’ve got to be playing in a pretty deep NL-only league to even be considering Cedeno on draft day. Given his track record, he’s barely even worth a thought while sitting on the waiver wire because even if starter Rafael Furcal is injured and Cedeno is playing full-time, you could probably get the same stats out of a part-timer on…well….any other team.
While the movement is small, it’s interesting to see that Josh Rutledge continues to trend upwards, and nearly every week since this series has begun. He’s one of those trendy picks I’ve been warning against over the last few weeks but it doesn’t appear as if anyone is being scared off. It’s not as if I don’t think he can succeed, it’s just that he is inexperienced and should probably be taken somewhere around the 15th or 16th round as opposed to the 10th which is where people have been reaching for him more often lately. Should he start off slow, the Rockies have a number of options they can use in his place.
Though he’s listed as the primary shortstop on the A’s official web site, as well as every fantasy site that provides depth charts for its readers, Hiroyuki Nakajima is getting no respect at all in drafts. Granted, he didn’t show very much power in Japan which probably means we’ll see even less when the season starts, but we’re talking about a guy who contended for the batting title overseas virtually every season over the last few years. Jed Lowrie is supposed to see most of his time at second base or as a super-utility guy, but Nakajima is supposed to be in the lineup regularly. Maybe it’s hard to trust the Japanese players as so many have failed to live up to their billing, but he certainly deserves more of a look than guys like Jurickson Profar, Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton, players who don’t even have a job in the bigs right now. Maybe if this were a keeper league, then it’d be something, but in a re-draft league? I don’t think so.
We’re just starting to see Milwaukee’s Alex Gonzalez start to climb up the rankings with news that he is likely to be the one to benefit the most with Corey Hart opening the season on the disabled list. He was supposed to be battling Taylor Green and prospect Hunter Morris this spring, but between his experience and the fact that he’s the only one of the three who is batting higher than his weight so far, he’s likely the one to get the majority of the at-bats. His overall value remains pretty low though given the fact that he’s only got mid-level power and no batting average, not to mention, the latest news has Hart only missing the first month of the season.
How about a quick peek to see what’s happening to the ADP over at MDC…?
The obvious thing to notice here is that, save for a handful of guys, most of the ranked players at MDC are going significantly lower than they are in the NFBC drafts. Obviously some of that is driven by league size, but given how big the differences are in most cases, it’s more about a lack of production in the counting stats.
What I do like about the ADP at Mock Draft Central is that there seems to be a more realistic look at certain players. Rutledge, for example, has a 229.51 ADP which puts him somewhere around the 16th round in a 15-team league and all the way down to the 20th in a 12-teamer. An injury-prone Troy Tulowitzki drops further towards the tail-end of the second round rather than the first few picks of the round while Ian Desmond, who seems to be due for some regression given his BABIP and ISO numbers in the past, drops from a third-round choice in the NFBC to a sixth-rounder at best over at MDC.
I do like the respect that Andrelton Simmons is getting, though, in truth, he’s not being taken that much earlier. But there is little faith in Tyler Pastornicky winning the shortstop job and Simmons could be a very interesting option in the later rounds. Right now he’s slated to bat leadoff for the Braves, so if he can keep his on-base percentage up, he’s going to be a great source of runs scored with that kind of power behind him in the lineup. Hopefully, he’ll kick in some decent stolen bases as well, but given the fact that Fredi Gonzalez isn’t usually one to give the green light, you’ll have to keep your expectations in check.
By thepearl-673, 3/4/2013 9:13 PM
By Howard Bender, 3/7/2013 1:25 AM
Ah yes. Scutaro had 27 games at short last season. He's over in the second baseman article but if you want to know where he's at, with an ADP of around 196, slot him in between Alexei Ramirez and JJ Hardy.