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Recent Second Base ADP Trends

Written By: Howard Bender on 3/2/2013 4:18 AM

Continuing our look at ADP trends position by position, we move over to the keystone and look at one of the thinner positions out there in the fantasy baseball world. But while a lack of major depth can be an issue for deeper leagues, another issue that should be examined is age. With there may be a few youngsters splashed in here and there, the majority of the top 15 are players who have been run through the mill more than just a few times. While diminishing skills and stats are obviously something to pay attention to, there is also the injury issue to take into consideration. That means you can either take a chance with an inexperienced youngster or risk injury and decline with the veterans. Not a very good choice, really, is it? Maybe not, but one that you’ll have to make.

So let’s take a look at the ADP trends for the top 50 according to the NFBC and, as we’ve done so far, we’ll compare the numbers to the Mock Draft Central data and see what kind of outliers we may be seeing as well.

Rank Player Team Current ADP 1 Week Ago Trend MDC ADP %Diff
1 Robinson Cano NYY 4.48 5.04 12.50% 7.51 -67.63%
2 Dustin Pedroia Bos 25.59 26.47 3.44% 41.14 -60.77%
3 Ian Kinsler Tex 30.74 33.20 8.00% 39.74 -29.28%
4 Ben Zobrist TB 49.12 49.63 1.04% 67.91 -38.25%
5 Aaron Hill Ari 56.83 57.43 1.06% 76.79 -35.12%
6 Jason Kipnis Cle 60.80 61.80 1.64% 50.11 17.58%
7 Brandon Phillips Cin 63.17 64.39 1.93% 79.59 -25.99%
8 Jose Altuve Hou 94.81 92.25 -2.70% 99.05 -4.47%
9 Rickie Weeks Mil 108.30 111.20 2.68% 154.17 -42.35%
10 Chase Utley Phi 123.12 127.12 3.25% 196.24 -59.39%
11 Danny Espinosa Was 136.33 134.25 -1.53% 101.95 25.22%
12 Howie Kendrick LAA 148.90 151.55 1.78% 214.37 -43.97%
13 Dan Uggla Atl 171.51 172.84 0.78% 202.18 -17.88%
14 Neil Walker Pit 171.87 171.78 -0.05% 192.78 -12.17%
15 Marco Scutaro SF 196.70 192.76 -2.00% 265.03 -34.74%
16 Dustin Ackley Sea 220.94 219.08 -0.84% 196.00 11.29%
17 Omar Infante Det 232.35 231.75 -0.26% 272.36 -17.22%
18 Daniel Murphy NYM 248.30 244.57 -1.50% 269.47 -8.53%
19 Jedd Gyorko SD 288.07 291.47 1.18% 232.65 19.24%
20 Gordon Beckham CWS 297.25 293.75 -1.18% 284.09 4.43%
21 Kelly Johnson TB 309.09 316.14 2.28% 257.39 16.73%
22 Logan Forsythe SD 358.58 355.29 -0.92% 327.78 8.59%
23 Jemile Weeks Oak 379.54 367.73 -3.11% 329.85 13.09%
24 Darwin Barney ChC 383.55 383.96 0.11% ND  
25 Brian Roberts Bal 410.43 414.45 0.98% 311.23 24.17%
26 Donovan Solano Mia 427.95 415.49 -2.91% ND  
27 Tyler Greene Hou 443.32 467.96 5.56% ND  
28 Mark Ellis LAD 445.36 444.78 -0.13% ND  
29 Jamey Carroll Min 462.34 460.28 -0.45% ND  
30 Kolten Wong StL 464.22 456.82 -1.59% ND  
31 Scott Sizemore Oak 472.16 466.82 -1.13% ND  
32 Daniel Descalso StL 472.89 470.18 -0.57% ND  
33 Steve Lombardozzi Was 495.92 500.16 0.85% ND  
34 Johnny Giavotella KC 497.77 502.41 0.93% 330.88 33.53%
35 Chris Getz KC 527.14 535.55 1.60% ND  
36 Alexi Casilla Bal 539.54 537.94 -0.30% ND  
37 Jordany Valdespin NYM 547.02 561.16 2.58% ND  
38 Alexi Amarista SD 552.30 556.16 0.70% ND  
39 DJ LeMahieu Col 592.53 594.63 0.35% ND  
40 Ryan Theriot SF 621.49 617.68 -0.61% ND  
41 Jerry Hairston Jr. LAD 623.22 619.70 -0.56% ND  
42 Robert Andino Sea 635.55 637.47 0.30% ND  
43 Skip Schumaker LAD 638.98 633.40 -0.87% ND  
44 Adam Rosales Oak 646.88 641.14 -0.89% ND  
45 Jimmy Paredes Hou 651.83 656.42 0.70% ND  
46 Ryan Flaherty Bal 661.44 654.78 -1.01% ND  
47 Jonathan Schoop Bal 674.88 695.42 3.04% ND  
48 Freddy Galvis Phi 675.90 675.38 -0.08% ND  
49 Yuniesky Betancourt Phi 678.41 682.90 0.66% ND  
50 Ryan Raburn Cle 680.24 682.38 0.31% ND  

Similarly to what we saw with first basemen, there isn’t a whole lot of movement in ADP rankings within the NFBC system. We’ve got a few guys moving up or down by a handful of picks, but we haven’t gotten too deep into position battles just yet and we probably won’t see too many decisions made until much later in the month. Still, there are some guys worthy of your attention…

Jemile Weeks, OAK (-3.11%) – His ADP was never high to begin with (24th/25th round of a 15-team league) but he continues to drop based solely on speculation. Granted, there’s pretty good reason, given the fact that both Jed Lowrie and Scott Sizemore are vying for time at second as well, but nothing has been etched in stone yet fantasy owners are giving up on Weeks already. The A’s have said that they could easily use Lowrie in a super-utility position which could leave a battle between Sizemore and Weeks for the second base job. Perhaps a hot spring wins him more playing time than expected. Keep watching as positive news could easily push him back up in the ADP ranks.

Tyler Greene, MIL (+5.56%) – He’s still pretty far down the ADP ranks as well, but Greene has been picking up steam a little lately as he continues to be listed atop the depth chart in Houston at the shortstop position. He’s competing with Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Elmore right now, but Greene’s experience might just give him the edge. Granted, it’s with the Astros who should struggle to produce runs all season, but should Greene land the full-time job, his value definitely goes up.

As I said earlier, the quality at the position is getting a little old, but it’s still interesting to see aging players who remain huge injury risks rising in ADP ranks. Both Rickie Weeks and Chase Utley have seen increases, though slight ones at that, despite the fact that they probably rank as two of the most brittle players right now. That, however, is probably more of a commentary on how sad the position may be rather than an accolade for the expected performance of either player.

Given the hot start he has had this spring, Padres second baseman Jedd Gyorko should start climbing up ADP boards pretty soon. He’s still pretty far down with an ADP of 288.07, but he’s actually been a steady riser over the past few weeks. He’ll probably continue to climb steadily, but until someone within the San Diego organization says that he has officially beaten out Logan Forsythe, there will always be a certain level of apprehension.

MDC Outliers

As you can see by the larger number of negative differentials, more people are waiting on second baseman at MDC than they are over at the NFBC. Perhaps it’s the concern over position scarcity in a 15-team league, or maybe it’s just a matter of more shallow drafts happening at MDC, but overall, people don’t seem to be enamored with much of their options at the keystone other than Robinson Cano. And even he is suffering in the ranks, going as high as fourth at the NFBC but coming in three to four picks late in the first round at MDC.

To the contrary of what we saw with Utley and Weeks rising in the NFBC, both have huge drops in comparison over at MDC. We’re talking between 50 and 70 pick differentials here. Even if you were talking about the difference between 15 and 12-team leagues, you’re only talking about a 30-pick differential at most.  That alone should tell you how far a lot of these second baseman are falling.

I do like seeing what people over at MDC are doing with Washington’s Danny Espinosa. While the batting average stinks, Espinosa contributes well in each of the remaining four standard roto categories, and contributes well. He has strong 20-20 capabilities and manages strong RBI totals for a middle infielder. The fact that he also picked up eligibility at shortstop makes him an even more attractive target on draft day.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

By whatheway5920, 3/3/2013 6:48 PM
Espinosa's shoulder scares the crap out of me. I've been an often lone defender of his on Nats' boards the last two years, but much of that is his defensive value and, as for offense, a hope for improvement. Yes, I thought as a 2B he was still very good at hitting. But he chose not to have surgery on an injury that wiped out the latter part of his season hitting-wise, and I'm not so sure that will end up being the right call.

By Wildor81, 3/5/2013 3:35 PM
Personally I agree with everything here. Have been targeting a 2nd baseman no later then round 8. However I really do like Espinosa but I won't draft him any league this year. Playing with a torn rotator cuff just sounds like months of DL time.

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