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Early NFBC ADP Trends for the Top 50 Outfielders

Written By: Howard Bender on 1/28/2013 1:05 PM

If you’ve been following along for the past few weeks, we’ve been going over the most recent ADP data according to the mock drafts done for the NFBC. I’ve now completed 14 different mock drafts looking for the most accurate data thus far and this is still it. The data here on Mock Draft Central will begin to normalize soon enough, but for now, let’s just stick with what we’ve got and use it to the best of our abilities.

Today we’re looking at the ADP trends for the Top 50 outfielders and what some of the reasons are behind the changes that we are witnessing. Some trends make complete sense while other might just be the NFBC data normalizing as well. The system certainly isn’t perfect right now, but if you treat this data as a guideline rather than gospel, you’re going to stay ahead of the game once the real fun begins. So let’s have a look-see here…

Rank Player Team Current ADP 1 Week Ago Trend
1 Ryan Braun Mil 1.71 1.83 0.12%
2 Mike Trout LAA 2.11 2.17 0.06%
3 Andrew McCutchen Pit 5.94 5.79 -0.15%
4 Matt Kemp LAD 9.57 6.63 -2.94%
5 Josh Hamilton LAA 10.83 11.42 0.59%
6 Carlos Gonzalez Col 11.43 10.96 -0.47%
           
7 Giancarlo Stanton Mia 17.49 17.00 -0.49%
8 Jose Bautista Tor 23.06 19.00 -4.06%
9 Justin Upton Atl 25.46 22.79 -2.67%
10 Jason Heyward Atl 28.63 27.96 -0.67%
           
11 Adam Jones Bal 31.23 32.38 1.15%
12 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 35.29 34.42 -0.87%
13 Bryce Harper Was 38.71 35.63 -3.08%
14 Curtis Granderson NYY 41.54 39.04 -2.50%
15 B.J. Upton Atl 45.60 44.75 -0.85%
16 Jay Bruce Cin 45.86 44.75 -1.11%
17 Matt Holliday StL 45.97 44.04 -1.93%
           
18 Yoenis Cespedes Oak 48.46 44.38 -4.08%
19 Ben Zobrist TB 53.49 49.92 -3.57%
           
20 Alex Rios CWS 64.49 64.67 0.18%
21 Desmond Jennings TB 69.97 67.79 -2.18%
           
22 Michael Bourn Atl 77.69 74.29 -3.40%
23 Shin-Soo Choo Cin 82.63 80.33 -2.30%
           
24 Alex Gordon KC 93.06 95.88 2.82%
25 Nelson Cruz Tex 100.80 100.96 0.16%
26 Hunter Pence SF 104.80 104.00 -0.80%
27 Mark Trumbo LAA 105.20 101.50 -3.70%
           
28 Austin Jackson Det 108.40 108.75 0.35%
29 Martin Prado Ari 108.83 107.75 -1.08%
30 Carlos Beltran StL 111.69 112.04 0.35%
31 Shane Victorino Bos 118.11 118.00 -0.11%
           
32 Josh Willingham Min 122.49 122.13 -0.36%
33 Melky Cabrera Tor 122.74 115.79 -6.95%
34 Michael Morse Sea 124.49 115.13 -9.36%
35 Carlos Gomez Mil 127.86 131.38 3.52%
36 Carl Crawford LAD 134.12 133.96 -0.16%
           
37 Norichika Aoki Mil 146.20 146.71 0.51%
           
38 Andre Ethier LAD 155.23 151.33 -3.90%
39 Ben Revere Phi 158.00 164.96 6.96%
40 Josh Reddick Oak 159.06 160.29 1.23%
41 Jayson Werth Was 162.06 158.88 -3.18%
42 Nick Markakis Bal 162.23 148.17 -14.06%
43 Nick Swisher Cle 164.20 160.58 -3.62%
           
44 Brett Gardner NYY 170.62 164.58 -6.04%
45 Coco Crisp Oak 170.91 175.63 4.72%
46 Angel Pagan SF 171.97 168.00 -3.97%
47 Michael Cuddyer Col 172.34 168.88 -3.46%
           
48 Ichiro Suzuki NYY 185.71 185.08 -0.63%
           
49 Dexter Fowler Col 201.09 192.83 -8.26%
50 Alejandro De Aza CWS 204.46 199.46 -5.00%

Something you’ll also notice that I did here was to start breaking the numbers up by round as well. Obviously, the actual number remains the most helpful, but it’s also good to see round by round picks so you can see where some of the runs are developing. I highly recommend you do some copying and pasting on your own to break things down by the number of teams in your league. As we move closer to the actual draft dates, I will start breaking the data up into rounds for standard 12-team leagues. The NFBC, if you recall, is broken up into numerous 15-team leagues.

As you can see you’ve got significant runs in the first and third rounds and then it stabilizes for a few rounds until you get to the ninth and 11th rounds. I t might make sense to adjust your strategy if you notice that these trends repeat throughout the whole process. Maybe you don’t want to go the way of the crowd early and deal with position scarcity. Maybe you’re concerned that the top half of the outfielders will come off the board too soon and you’ll be stuck without an elite outfielder. Whatever the case may be, at least you’re dealing with it in the best possible way.

Biggest Risers

Ben Revere, PHI (+6.96%) – Now that the Phillies outfield is a little more set in terms of who is getting the playing time and who isn’t, Revere seems to be climbing up the ranks a bit. What’s interesting about that is that, not only is Revere listed in the Top 50, but that he’s solely a stolen base guy and listed in the Top 50. He does absolutely nothing else for your fantasy team, and that’s the type of player post people complain about. He hasn’t hit a home run in 1,064 major league at-bats, his average is middling at best, and given the state of the Phillies, it could be difficult at times for them to score some runs. Everyone says you can always get plenty of speed later on in your draft and yet here’s a guy who does nothing but that, and we’re still pushing him up the rankings.

Coco Crisp, OAK (+4.72%) – Another oddball rise in the ADP numbers, if you ask me. Yes, Coco does a little bit more than just steal bases, but is no one nervous about potential time shares in Oakland? They’ve got five legitimate starters and just four spots to fill and I’m not even counting the youngsters who likely won’t see time beyond spring training. Someone will be left out in the cold and you better hope it it’s not one of your guys.

Carlos Gomez, MIL (+3.52%) – He’s turned into one of the hottest, most trendiest picks around now with his 30-steals potential and supposed close to 20-HR pop. While I could see him building off a part of his numbers from last year, I have a hard time seeing an across the board, upward movement for everything.

Alex Gordon, KC (+2.04%) – Gordon, on the other hand, I see as a fantastic hitter and one who will, most definitely, turn a significant chunk of those 51 doubles back into home runs. He hit .333 for the final four months of the season and has shown the ability to hit for both average and power. Now that he likely won’t be moved around in the order like last season, he’ll be able to do the job for which he is most needed.

Adam Jones, BAL (+1.15%) – Still trending upwards. Gotta love it. Jones was my pick for Breakout Player of the Year in 2012 and he more than delivered, setting career-highs in numerous offensive categories. While he might not build on last season’s success, he certainly has the talent to to maintain himself on this 30-HR plateau for a little while.

Biggest Fallers

Nick Markakis, BAL (-14.06%) – Exactly. This is my least surprising trend on the whole list. Markakis had been declining steadily over the three years prior to the 2012 season and though he did better this time around, he still hasn’t hit for any kind of legit power. Sure, you can blame the fractured thumb and his missing of September, but it’s not like his he was hitting for anything legit to write home about. It was a .172 ISO and likely headed south had he actually played for that final month.

Michael Morse, SEA (-9.36%) – The move to Seattle is finally taking its toll on Morse’s ADP rankings despite the fact that they are moving the fences in at Safeco Field and he has a full-time job in right field locked down. Perhaps it’s also just a general lack of faith in him to repeat the power he showed just two seasons ago. He was, after all, a pretty late-bloomer.

Dexter Fowler, COL (-8.26%) – While Fowler still, technically has a starting job lined up in the Colorado outfield, there are numerous trade rumors swirling around and he could conceivably be dealt  right around the start of Spring Training. If he lands somewhere as a fourth outfielder, he’s going to drop even further than he has already

Melky Cabrera, TOR (-6.95%) – OK, so maybe this is actually my least surprising trend. It’s about time people stopped drafting Melky as if he was going to put up the same numbers he did last year while on the juice. How he is going this high is absolutely baffling. I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up something a little closer to his final year in New York, and those numbers certainly weren’t Top 50 outfield caliber.

Brett Gardner, NYY (-6.04%) – And finally, here’s one of those inexplicable drops I have to assume is just the NFBC data normalizing. Garner has incredible stolen base potential and will be starting in center field this season. He’ll likely spend half his time at the top of the order when they bump Derek Jeter down to the two-hole which means a sweet increase in both steals and runs scored.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.


By IRA, 1/28/2013 2:06 PM
Who is your breakout player this year?

By fat4jc, 1/28/2013 3:57 PM
What are your thoughts on Rcky Romero rebounding this year? I've been taking him late in drafts, I think an ERA in the high 3's is possible, and his K rate has always been pretty decent...

By Erik Siegrist, 1/28/2013 7:14 PM
"The juice" is not a magic hitting potion. And muscles don't just evaporate overnight, regardless of how you got them. Melky hit .274/.336/.416 with 13 home runs in his final year in New York (when he was 24), and will now be playing in a home stadium at least as conducive to right-hand hitters as Yankee Stadium was for him. There's zero logic behind the assumption that he'll have a huge regression now that he's in what should be his prime at 28.

But please, keep running Melky down - he'll be that much bigger a bargain for those of us not wearing PED blinders.

By rotobuzzguy, 1/29/2013 8:32 AM
@IRA -- I've been riding the Heyward train long before the Upton deal. I think he's going to provide first round production this year. Unfortunately, the Upton trade has put him even more front and center and I could actually see him start going in the early second by the time March rolls around. I also love Prado now that he's in AZ. He's got one year of arbitration left and then hits the free agent market. Hitting second in the D-Backs lineup and having Chase Field to call home should be huge for him.

By rotobuzzguy, 1/29/2013 8:38 AM
@fat4jc -- While I see Romero having a better year than last year, I don't see him returning to the form we saw in 2010 or 2011. Even back then, his peripheral weren't that great. His FIP in both those years was significantly higher than his ERA and he benefited from a BABIP well below league average. As a ground ball specialist, he should benefit from an improved defense behind him, but not to the point where his numbers will be significantly better than his 2012 totals. -- HB

By rotobuzzguy, 1/29/2013 8:48 AM
@Erik Siegrist -- I've been down this road with Melky supporters for the last two years. I understand that PEDs use is not a magic potion, but they obviously enhance performance, hence the label. I watched Melky come through the Yankees system and watched as he painfully fell short of expectations year after year. Even when he finally cracked the lineup, his defense was much more the focus than his bat. When he went to Atlanta he was a huge disaster and after the year he played in KC and then headed for SF, I wrote pieces discussing his skill set vs his performance and that his numbers were unsustainable. Everyone told me I was wrong, citing things like his new workout regime and career trajectory. When he was beasting for the Giants, people even came back to a post I did for FanGraphs and railed me for my "missed call". Where are all those people now? Exactly. So please.....by all means....take Melky in the 9th round and pass up on much better OF talent. Sure, maybe the park in Toronto will benefit him....and maybe it won't. You can be happy with your 13 home runs and .270 average, but I'd be much happier taking Swisher's 25 home runs two rounds later...or Gardner's 45 SB or Cuddyer's 23 HR three rounds later.... Melky lovers need to learn when to walk away....he wasn't very good back then, he cheated to be better, and he won't be very good now. They're not PEDs blinders....it's called reality.

By Howard Bender, 1/29/2013 9:02 AM
To IRA, fat4jc and Erik Siegrist --

I posted responses to your comments over on Mock Draft Central and they aren't showing here. Just click here.

By Howard Bender, 1/29/2013 9:02 AM
whoops.....here you go -- http://mdc.mockdraftcentral.com/article.htm?id=4285

By Erik Siegrist, 1/29/2013 1:42 PM
Howard, the point is not whether you were previously right or wrong on your Melky predictions. The point is that "he's off PEDs, he'll regress" is not an actual argument. Can you cite any studies showing that players who came off PEDs averaged a production drop of x%? Of course not; we aren't even sure what impact they have, much less what the effects of coming off them are.

Even if you'd said "Melky will no longer get the confidence boost he got from his secret PED use", that would at least be something. But there's no reason to discount someone's production simply because they stopped using.

(And none of that even takes into consideration the possibility that Melky didn't stop, but simply switched to better masking agents...)

There is way too much noise and uncertainty around PEDs to make definitive statements like "no PEDs = automatic regression". Melky's a hitter who showed offensive development in his age-26 season, and a bigger spike at age 27, just like plenty of hitters before him. Do you have any way of determining how much of that was PED-infused, and how much normal development curve? Any way at all?

By Polocash7, 1/29/2013 9:04 PM
Why is Stanton 30 picks b4 Bruce? I rather have Bruce. Better Lineup & better ball park. Why would anyone pitch to Stanton w/men on base?

By Howard Bender, 2/7/2013 2:18 AM
No Erik, I do not have any way to determine how much of Melky's upswing was PEDs induced and how much was natural development at the age of 26 or 27. But let's be realistic here and not turn a blind eye to what has been one of the biggest problems in sports today. If PEDs didn't enhance performance and give players an extra edge, then why are they banned? Yes, they affect players differently and some get a bigger boost from their usage than others do, but there is still an obvious degree of improvement from using. Look at the offensive numbers over the years. Sure, there was use back in the 70's and 80's but just like any other "technology" of today compared to that of 20 years ago, the product today has been steadily improved over time with persistent experimentation.

Could most of Melky's upswing have come from natural development? Sure. Maybe the boost he got from using was minor. But take away the PEDs and you're still taking away that minor improvement. Couple that with the fact that he is now aging past his prime and the physical problems that extended use causes and you've got yourself a lesser player, plain and simple.

I can appreciate the stance you're taking and we can agree to disagree right now and re-visit Melky's performance after the season. He's now in a great hitter's park and the Jays have done several things to improve their lineup. That alone will probably help your side in this debate. I'm just not going to take that chance with my fantasy team and I certainly won't recommend that others do.

By sucyyuan, 1/14/2014 6:45 PM
zapatos gucci

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