Now one caveat here before we look at the numbers – there seems to be a lull this week in the number of drafts going on as this data is based on just 60 leagues reporting. With fewer drafts reporting, the fluctuations become slightly more exaggerated. That doesn’t mean you dismiss the movement altogether and wait for more drafts to report, but you might want to discount some of it slightly….very slightly though, as 60 drafts is still a decent amount of data to use to gain understanding.
|Current ADP||Change||1 Week Ago||Change||2 Weeks Ago||Overall Trend|
Right? Pretty strong movement here. Again, maybe discount it a little bit, but not too much. We’ll get a better idea as to how much of a discount to put on it once we see some more numbers next week or the week after. But in the meantime, let’s discuss some of what we are seeing here.
The most notable move, and this comes in conjunction with looking at the overall ADP ranks, is the 32.9% increase for Aaron Rodgers. As the debate continues over where to take a quarterback, plenty of folks are apparently grabbing Rodgers as high as number one these days. As for his positioning as the number four overall choice, it’s hard to argue against his track record when you’re debating the value of him in comparison to the value of continued holdout Maurice Jones-Drew who is plummeting and Chris Johnson who has been a veritable disappointment over the last two seasons.
There’s a pretty substantial swing being caused by the increased popularity of both Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray along with the steady decline of Trent Richardson in the ADP ranks. McFadden has little or no competition for touches at all this year and reports from camp regarding Murray have been glowing. In fact, between the talk of getting him more involved in the passing game and how strong and fast he looks at practice, Felix Jones has become barely an afterthought. Meanwhile, Richardson continues to plummet as more and more fantasy owners grow concerned about the Cleveland offense and how defenses will key in on stopping the run and force Brandon Weeden to take to the air.
With the uncertainty of the running backs outside of the top six or seven running backs, it comes as no shock to see Drew Brees with a 12.4% increase, vaulting him into first round material. Tom Brady is hot on his tail with a 17.3% increase and very close to leapfrogging a stagnant Marshawn Lynch, and it could be just a matter of time before we finally see three quarterbacks all go in the first round.
With concerns over how much added work Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling are actually looking at, Michael Turner has, for the most part, stood still in the ADP ranks and has been jumped by a surging Larry Fitzgerald. What should be watched though is whether or not Fitzgerald continues to climb with word that John Skelton may be the choice for quarterback in Arizona as opposed to Kevin Kolb. Skelton and Fitzgerald found a bit of a groove late last year, but is it enough to keep him climbing in drafts?
All concerns about Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski’s abilities as a route runner after ankle surgery were put to bed as he avoided the active/PUP list, started camp on time and has looked incredibly strong at practice. The confidence is running extremely high as he slingshots past both Frank Gore and Victor Cruz in the ADP ranks. Moving past Gore isn’t much of a surprise though as the 49ers have brought in Brandon Jacobs to handle short yardage situations as well as the fact that they are looking to incorporate Kendall Hunter a little more into the offensive scheme. As for Cruz, it might simply be a desire to fill the tight end spot with a guy who plays and scores like a high-end wideout as opposed to actually grabbing a receiver of which there are still many after the first two rounds.
And finally, though he didn't make the list above, how about the free fall of Ryan Mathews whose 81.2% drop pulled him from an ADP in the top six all the way down to 28th overall? The decline due to the broken collarbone is obvious, but reports have him missing just the first two weeks of the regular season. It would seem that there is very little faith in his healing powers as rumors of Lynch missing time due to a possible suspension merely pulled him into the second round. This injury pulled Mathews beyond that and likely even further as we get closer to the start of the season.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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