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AFC SOUTH - Fantasy Preview
Written By: Luke Hoover on 7/30/2012 1:06 AMAfter looking at the NFC South, I’m continuing my division-by-division breakdown by rating the players of the AFC South on the three B’s scale (Best, Bust, Buy-Low). Not to be ignored are the IDP’s and schedule analysis. Fire away with any thoughts.
Best
Arian Foster, RB (HOU) – Assuming Foster plays the full 16 games you can chalk him up for at least 1,800 total yards and 12 scores, with the strong possibility he tops the 2K yardage mark and puts 15+ in the end zone.
Chris Johnson, RB (TEN) – He won’t exactly be CJ2K again, but with the addition of Steve Hutchinson to anchor the o-line and their adjustments to the playbook to include more counter plays, Johnson will certainly be among the frontrunners for the rushing title. Behind the likes of Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy there isn’t a safer bet among all backs to finish in the top-10 at the position, and a top-3 spot is a strong possibility.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB (JAC) – The holdout is worrisome because it opens the door for Rashad Jennings (a legitimately talented player) to earn more snaps and because MJD will need to quickly learn a new offense, but it is still Pocket Hercules we’re talking about here. The guy has always been a self-sacrificing team player and an incredibly hard worker. He’ll arrive in shape whenever that may be and when he does see the field, which will be for 16 games, he’ll still be one of the top rushers in football. It’s entirely possible his scores go up as the passing game improves and he contends for a fantasy MVP. Nevertheless, I’d draft him after the likes of Foster, Rice, McCoy, CJ, Megatron, Aaron Rodgers and possibly Ryan Mathews until he ends the holdout.
Andre Johnson, WR (HOU) – In a keeper or dynasty format I wouldn’t spend the pick it would require to own Johnson, but he otherwise remains a top-5 wideout regardless of his recent injury issues (including the minor groin speed bump). If you are lucky enough to get a full season out of him, he’s easily in the race for top receiver. Johnson is still a yardage beast every week when healthy and if he is available in the second round of a standard or PPR league, he’s as good a risk/reward pick as there is.
Jared Cook, TE (TEN) – It doesn’t look like Kenny Britt will be a consistent option for the Titans this season and Cook will emerge as the team’s next best receiving weapon after struggling with his development in previous years. Though they have a deep and gifted group of wideouts, Cook clearly showed that he now “gets it” when he went crazy for 335 yards in the final three games of the year and led all tight ends in yards per catch on the season. In 2012 Cook will post the third most yards of any tight end behind Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, and while he won’t compare to them in the TD category, he will come at just a tiny fraction of their cost.
Bust
Kenny Britt, WR (TEN) – This doesn’t require much explanation. He’s had not one, not two, but three knee surgeries since tearing his right ACL and MCL last September, including an arthroscopic procedure on his left knee as recently as a month ago. And if that weren’t enough, his recent DUI spells a likely suspension. Britt doesn’t even begin to outweigh his risk until about the eighth round at the earliest despite his immense ability.
Kendall Wright, WR (TEN) – As of this posting, Wright still hasn’t signed his rookie deal and is late reporting to camp. He’ll get opportunities early in the season with Britt missing time, but he’s still extremely raw as a route runner and behind Cook, Nate Washington and Damian Williams as a target for whoever’s throwing it in Tennessee. Wright is going to struggle to make his mark and isn’t worth the late round pick it will cost to get him. There are plenty of better flier picks.
Matt Hasselbeck, QB (TEN) – Hasselbeck started 2011 off quite strongly and finished with the third best yardage total of his career. And that was without Britt for all but two games. Nevertheless, despite the extra weapons this season, Hasselbeck, a year older and closer to retirement, will not be worth owning even if he wins the starting job coming out of the preseason. Jake Locker is bound to replace him this year, and likely much sooner than later.
Nate Washington, WR (TEN) – Though Washington finished with solid totals in a career-year, he was wildly inconsistent in 2011 with a stretch of games late in the year that went for 2, 4, 23, 1, 4 and 19 points. And despite his legitimate talent, he won’t even repeat the totals he hit last year. Cook will continue to rise and steal looks, while Wright will be worked into the mix and Britt may even steal the show periodically. All that adds up to Washington being end-of-the-bench fodder that will be overpaid for in a middle round.
Matt Schaub, QB (HOU) – With the uncertainty of Johnson’s health, it’s difficult to imagine Schaub being a consistently strong producer this year. The Texans are clearly a run-first offense that doesn’t throw often near the goal line, and after Johnson, they’re extremely bereft of receiving options. Additionally, Schaub is coming off a Lisfranc injury. There’s just too much that could go wrong here to roll the dice on the one-time Pro Bowler.
Owen Daniels, TE (HOU) – Daniels’ value is completely dependent on Johnson staying healthy all year. If the superstar isn’t there to dominate coverage, Daniels is the next best option and will often be blanketed. Also, having missed 14 games himself over the past three years, Daniels brings plenty of his own injury concerns. There are much better, younger options available as a backup tight end.
Buy-Low
Donald Brown, RB (IND) – Whether he’s really everydown-back material or not, it appears Brown will get his chance to prove it under new coach Chuck Pagano. The former first-round draft pick may not ever be a stud, but in a much-improved offense under the guidance of Luck, he will be an every-week flex start at the least.
Ben Tate, RB (HOU) – If anything happens to Foster, the best backup in football may well lead the entire league in rushing. Tate has that much upside, and even if he’s just relegated to backup duties all year, he’s still good for about 750 rushing and a decent flex with the right matchup.
Reggie Wayne, WR (IND) – Wayne will make the transition for Luck just that much easier. He’s as savvy and smart a receiver as there is in the league, and though he’s 33-years-old, he still has enough left in the tank to handle 140+ targets. Lock this undervalued vet down for at least 1,100 yards and six scores.
Andrew Luck, QB (IND) – The Colts are rebuilding everywhere, but the offense is going to be vastly ahead of their defense this season. That means that with the NFC North and AFC East on the docket for Indy, Luck and the Colts are going to find themselves throwing from behind early and often in many games. With Luck’s arm in heavy use, his floor this year will be 3,500 yards and his ceiling will be the rookie passing records—both yards and scores.
Jake Locker, QB (TEN) – The situation with Locker is a very fluid one. If he wins the camp battle with Hasselbeck (I wouldn’t count on that), he could start going as one of the top backup quarterbacks and lose that “buy-low” value. He has tremendous upside as a dual threat QB with plenty of weapons surrounding him, but there is also considerable downside given his rawness as a passer, meaning his floor is every bit as low as his ceiling is high. If he’s going to start the year behind Hasselbeck though, he’s a great investment for the patient owner with a stud starter. At some point he will start and he could be primed for a few huge weeks facing a weak schedule.
Coby Fleener, TE (IND) – The obvious reason to like the upside on Fleener is the connection that already exists with Luck. And that should lead to a better success rate on his targets, but the reasons to be high on him extend much deeper. At 6-foot-6 and nearly 250 lbs., Fleener is another tight end in that mold of gigantic receiver. He runs in the 4.4-range, can line up all over and has excellent hands that can high point the ball well over a defender’s reach. With Luck making a seamless jump to the pros, Fleener has the raw ability and gifts to be a poor man’s Jimmy Graham in his first year.
Justin Blackmon, WR (JAC) – It’s too early to speculate that Blackmon will bust. He has more than enough talent to succeed and Gabbert actually throws a nice ball with good zip and accuracy when he can set his feet properly. The off-the-field issues are certainly concerning, but Blackmon is a good enough young talent to warrant a mid to late round flier. He carries more upside than others in that range and his floor is solid.
Laurent Robinson, WR (JAC) – There’s no way Robinson matches the 11 scores he blew up for in 2011 playing in the Jaguars offense, but if Blackmon receives the extra attention from defenses, Robinson could become Gabbert’s favorite target. Since the young quarterback is going to improve significantly heading into his second season, that role does actually carry some nice value. Additionally, Robinson is the perfect fit for a young quarterback making those developmental strides. Few in the league adjust to their QB better when plays break down, and Robinson will frequently bail out Gabbert this year.
Rashad Jennings, RB (JAC) – Jennings’ career average per carry of 5.4 yards and his being the only competent backup in Jacksonville make him one of the premier handcuffs in the league. Even when MJD returns from his holdout, Jennings will have earned himself a solid spot in a carry rotation that the Jags will implement to keep MJD fresher and lengthen his career.
T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND) – This rookie speedster has all the traits of DeSean Jackson but is a more versatile route runner who can line up anywhere on the field. He’s also a dynamic return man and Hilton could be the immediate replacement to Pierre Garcon’s big-play threat in the passing game. Since he’ll be available as a team’s last bench spot, his upside makes a roll of the dice well worth it.
Damian Williams, WR (TEN) – A highly underrated talent, Williams had at least six points in nine of the final 13 games last season after Britt went down. Entering his third year he is already a better, more complete player than Washington, and though Cook will be heavily involved this year, Williams could be the No. 1 wide receiver from Day 1 with Britt likely out to start the year.
Austin Collie, WR (IND) – Everyone saw what Collie is capable of when he played with an elite quarterback in 2010 and went off for 398 yards and five scores in just the first four games of the year. While that’s a ridiculous pace that he could never maintain over 16 games with any quarterback, that does also indicate that he has the talent level to produce strong totals over a full season. Though he didn’t accomplish that last year, the mere fact that he played the whole year was a plus given his history of concussions. With Garcon out of the picture and a huge upgrade at quarterback, this sure-handed technician could develop into a good slot target for Luck and post more than respectable numbers, particularly in PPR formats.
Donnie Avery, WR (IND) – An ultra-deep sleeper, if Avery wiggles his way into the regular rotation during training camp, the receiver who was once the first wideout taken in the 2008 NFL Draft could emerge as the No. 2 receiver opposite Wayne. Even if he’s just the third-most targeted option after Wayne and Fleener that could still spell a lot of looks in an offense that figures to be throwing a ton from behind.
Top IDP’s
Brian Cushing, LB (HOU) – Though he has yet to reproduced his monstrous rookie season, Cushing is a tremendous old-school inside linebacker with an animal-like beast mentality. He’s constantly flying to the ball and making plays. Not only will he get you a pile of tackles, but he’ll also pitch in a handful of sacks and a few picks to go with them.
Paul Posluszny, LB (JAC) – Posluszny looks and fits the role of a middle linebacker to a T. He’s a hard-nosed tackle machine and in his second season as a Jag he’ll see his tackle numbers jump back to elite status.
Colin McCarthy, LB (TEN) – After taking over the starting gig for an injured Barrett Ruud midseason, McCarthy showed tremendous promise, piling up nearly eight tackles a game (six solo) over eight contests, which would be about 130 for a full season. With Ruud out of town and the job all his, he should rocket up the IDP charts in Year 2.
Pat Angerer, LB (IND) – The Colts as a team had a whopping 1,253 total tackles in 2011 thanks to a combination of an offense that couldn’t stay on the field and a defense that couldn’t get off it. Angerer in just his second season had 148 of them. Still, 70 of those were only assisted tackles, so he’s not a truly elite IDP yet. In the middle of coach Pagano’s 3-4 attack, if he can turn half that second number into solos, he’ll make the jump to star status. And with the Colts defense once again likely to stink, he should have plenty of opportunities.
Jason McCourty, DB (TEN) – McCourty, who had a breakthrough season with over 100 total tackles, led all DB’s with 83 solo tackles and did this despite missing a game. Since he is just an okay cover guy, he’s sure to continue getting thrown on with regularity and racking up those tackles. When he adds a few big plays that’s just a nice bonus.
Antoine Bethea, DB (IND) – Though he went without a single pick or sack last year, Bethea was still a beast as a defensive back IDP. He led all d-backs in total tackles with a whopping 139, which was also 30 better than the next DB. And though that number will likely come down, it was not an aberration. He’s been consistently in the 100-tackle range for four straight years.
J.J. Watt, DE (HOU) – Watt had a huge rookie year and was flat out dominant in the playoffs—posting 14 tackles, 3.5 sacks and scoring on an amazing picks six—all in just two games. Even playing end in a 3-4 defense, he has the upside to post 70+ tackles and eight or more sacks.
Daryl Smith, LB (JAC) – In a division with few sure things at the IDP’s, Smith is one of the safer, albeit unspectacular, guys. He’s averaged just over 100 total tackles for the past three years and totaled 8.5 sacks in that time. While he’s not likely to push into the upper tiers of IDP’s with Posluszny lining up next to him, he’s also a reliable source of stops as a bye-week or injury replacement.
Brooks Reed, LB (HOU) – Like Watt, Reed had a strong but not spectacular regular season and then busted out during the playoffs with 13 tackles, 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble in two games. Since he’ll enter his second season as a full-time starter, Reed could find himself on the precipice of being an elite 3-4 edge rusher. Expect double-digit sacks in Year 2.
Kamerion Wimbley, DE (TEN) – The key for Wimbley is whether or not he’s moved to a full-time defensive end, his more natural position. If that is the case and he can be played there he’s a tremendous IDP value as a guy likely to top 60 tackles and post double-digit sacks.
Kavell Conner, LB (IND) – Like Angerer, Conner posted nice tackle totals though about half were assisted tackles. Even still, given how much he’ll be on the field, he could very well swing the pendulum the other way and boost those solo stops. If he adds some big plays to his repertoire, Conner could be a nice sleeper IDP.
Dawan Landry, DB (JAC) – Landry has been up-and-down during his career as far as making plays in the passing game, but he has become a reliable source of tackles for a defensive back. His 297 total takedowns in the past three years rank him among the best safeties.
Jordan Babineaux, DB (TEN) – Not all that far behind McCourty, Babineaux was also a terrific source of tackles while upstaging Michael Griffin as the team’s top safety in his first year as a Titan. If he can maintain that pace and add a couple picks he’s a top DB IDP.
Akeem Ayers, LB (TEN) – Coming into his rookie year, Ayers was known for his versatility as an outside backer with enough range to cover field and take down ball carriers, but also plenty of burst to get after the quarterback. While he didn’t make an enormous impact as a rookie, he certainly flashed his potential with 76 tackles and two sacks. Expect him to be in that 100-tackle, 5-sack range in his sophomore season.
Bradie James, LB (HOU) – James fell out of favor in Dallas last season and struggled in new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan’s scheme. He had an embarrassingly down year, but prior to it he’d gone for over 100 total tackles in five straight. Now reunited with the coach that he worked for in that stretch—Wade Phillips—James could be poised for a big bounce back.
Connor Barwin, LB (HOU) – Barwin is a boom or bust IDP. He’s unlikely to ever rack up significant tackle numbers from his outside backer position, but he’s a great rusher in Houston’s scheme. The 11.5 sacks he posted in a breakout 2011 season could well be the norm for him moving forward.
Jeremy Mincey, DE (JAC) – Mincey finally stepped up in his fourth season, topping 50 total tackles and registering eight sacks. If he’s just now putting it together, that could be a sign of bigger things to come.
Schedule
The AFC South squares off with the AFC East & NFC North in 2012.
Houston Texans
Bye Week: 8
Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ New England
Week 15 vs. Indianapolis
Week 16 vs. Minnesota
Week 17 @ Indianapolis
Overall: Houston may have the most attractive fantasy schedule of any team in the league. Their lone intimidating matchup is the Ravens and they were able to move the ball on that defense with Terrell Suggs in Baltimore in a playoff game and with T.J. Yates at quarterback. Games with the Jets, Bills and Bears could also be small speed bumps but an incredibly inviting playoff slate more than makes up for it.
Tennessee Titans
Bye Week: 11
Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Indianapolis
Week 15 vs. New York Jets
Week 16 @ Green Bay
Week 17 vs. Jacksonville
Overall: Getting Houston twice will be anything but pleasant and the likes of Pittsburgh, Chicago, Buffalo and a road playoff game with the Jets could very well slow the Titans’ potentially high-powered attack. Otherwise, their remaining 10 games look pretty mild and several—the Patriots, Lions and Packers—could result in shootouts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Bye Week: 6
Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. New York Jets
Week 15 @ Miami
Week 16 vs. New England
Week 17 @ Tennessee
Overall: With MJD being completely matchup-proof the two toughest games (Houston twice) are only problematic for the pass game. Gabbert should otherwise be solid against everyone else with the exceptions of the Bears, Bills, Jets and possibly the Bengals.
Indianapolis Colts
Bye Week: 4
Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Tennessee
Week 15 @ Houston
Week 16 @ Kansas City
Week 17 vs. Houston
Overall: The Colts’ schedule is mostly non-threatening for the entire season right up until Week 15. Then all hell breaks loose and they are stuck with the Texans twice and a trip to Arrowhead in December, essentially relegating all Colts extremely iffy playoff starts. But until then, only trips to the Bears and Jets and a visit from the Bills look troubling.
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