AFC EAST - Fantasy Preview

Written By: Luke Hoover on 7/12/2012 2:20 PM

After looking at the NFC East, I’m continuing my division-by-division breakdown by rating the players of the AFC East on the three B’s scale (Best, Bust, Buy-Low). Not to be ignored are the IDP’s and schedule analysis. Fire away with any thoughts.

Best

Tom Brady, QB (NE) – Brady was ridiculous in 2011 without any semblance of a deep threat. With Brandon Lloyd added to the mix in New England, he could be even better and certainly warrants a first round pick in all leagues. It would be a shock if he didn’t finish among the top three quarterbacks, and there’s a very real chance he’s the No. 1 producer in all of fantasy.

Rob Gronkowski, TE (NE) – The presence of Lloyd will take away many of Gronk’s vertical targets, and consequently a decent chunk of his yards. But that won’t stop this superstar from continuing to dominate, particularly in the red zone. The 10 scores he posted as a rookie very well may be Gronkowski’s floor, and a fair projection for 2012 is about 1,000 yards and 12 scores.

Fred Jackson, RB (BUF) – One of the toughest dynamics to predict in fantasy will be the distribution in touches between Jackson and C.J. Spiller. If Jackson can be had in the 15-20 range at running back though, he’ll definitely provide a good return on that investment, with upside to again crash the top-10 if Spiller goes down.

Brandon Lloyd, WR (NE) – In 2010 playing in the same offense under Josh McDaniel’s and catching passes from Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow, Lloyd finished first in the league in receiving yards and second with 23 catches of 20+ yards. Sure, there are more mouths to feed in New England, but Brady will have a field day burning defenses deep with Lloyd, and that will translate into a top-20 fantasy season, possibly even top-15 or better.

Shonn Greene, RB (NYJ) – Greene is one of just a handful of backs in the league that can be counted on to see upwards of 250+ carries, and while he’s not exactly a dynamic runner who will pile up the yards, he’s competent enough to cash in a No. 2 fantasy RB season. Over his final nine full games in 2011 he saw at least 13 carries in each of them and had just one game under 4.0 YPC (3.9 in Week 17).

Aaron Hernandez, TE (NE) – With Gronk, Lloyd and Wes Welker drawing so much attention, Hernandez will have a field day many weeks. The Patriots line him up all over to create mismatches and Brady won’t hesitate to find him when he consistently gets open. Though he may disappear on occasion because of the ultra deep corps of weapons, Hernandez should still close the gap between he and Gronk by season’s end.

Steve Johnson, WR (BUF) – Though Johnson fell off a bit from his breakout 2010, he still dominated targets in the Bills’ passing game and posted a solid year despite a myriad of nagging injuries. With one of the league’s best rushing attacks and a stronger defense to provide more opportunities, look for Johnson to challenge for a top-20 receiving season.

C.J. Spiller, RB (BUF) – If you’re drafting Spiller to be more than a flex there’s a strong chance you’ll regret it, but as a No. 3 back, he could be highly valuable. He has the same explosive playmaking ability as another C.J. and compares favorably to Jamaal Charles pre ACL tear. If he can forge a 60-40 split between he and Jackson, expect about 1,100 total yards and 6-8 scores.

Bust

Reggie Bush, RB (MIA) – The former Mr. Glass somehow survived until the final week of the season last year and put up career numbers as a result. But he’s definitely not worth investing in him as a No. 2 back with the history that still chases him. In a new offense, with more depth thanks to the drafting of Lamar Miller, and with his durability concerns, consider yourself advised to stay away from Mr. Bush.

Mark Sanchez, QB (NYJ) – Sanchez’s fantasy numbers will be stiff-armed into the ground by Tebow. Oh and the complete lack of receiver talent won’t exactly help last year’s tenth overall fantasy QB either.

Santonio Holmes, WR (NYJ) – A bad attitude, average quarterbacks, a run-first team and a lack of weapons to draw attention away from Holmes are some pretty huge issues that will be working against him in 2012. Though Holmes’ is a true talent and has proven productive in the past, he screams “buyer beware” this season.

Chad Johnson, WR (MIA) – This hardly deserves mention, and should be no surprise either, but because Johnson could be (sadly) the most relevant Dolphins wide receiver, I feel compelled to squash any potentially absurd hopes that some might have for him. The former OchoCinco has only returned to Chad Johnson by name (he legally changed it back on July 4), as the former Pro-Bowler is well past his prime and not going to find the fountain of youth in South Beach.

Stevan Ridley, RB (NE) – Ridley will have a shot to start, but he will be on short leash after he caught a case of fumblitis at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Bill Belichick has no tolerance for fumbling and with Shane Vereen having come in the second round of the 2011 draft, a round ahead of Ridley, there’s a legitimate chance that he steals the feature role in a Patriots backfield that could just as well be an unpredictable committee.

Wes Welker, WR (NE) – Welker still may hit the 100-catch mark this year, but don’t expect the 12.9 yards-per-catch he put up last year (his best as a Patriot). With Lloyd and the tight ends running the medium and deep routes, Welker should drop back down to his usual 10.5 – 11.0 yard average and, combined with the loss of targets to Lloyd, lose about 400 yards from last year’s career mark. A drop from his career-best nine scores is also likely, landing him closer to the 15-20 range for receivers than the top-10.

Buy-Low

Shane Vereen, RB (NE) – The Patriots made Vereen the third running back taken in the 2011 draft at 56th overall, ahead of the likes of DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu and Mikel Leshoure, not to mention his teammate, Ridley. Clearly Belichick saw something special in him and though injuries and a crowded backfield prevented that from coming out his rookie year, Vereen should see plenty of opportunities in Year 2. His quickness, acceleration and good hands out of the backfield will make him a breakout player in 2012.

Dustin Keller, TE (NYJ) – The Jets will have far from a high-octane pass attack behind Sanchez and Tebow, but Keller should benefit from the lack of an established No. 2 receiver by seeing a ton of targets and being a favorite near the red zone. Count on him for a career year in just about every category.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (BUF) – Fitzpatrick posted career-highs in pretty much every passing category in 2011, and if he can bring down his league-leading 23 interceptions to a reasonable number, he could really take off as a top-end No. 2/borderline No. 1 fantasy QB. With a stud running attack to keep defenses honest, if a strong No. 2 wideout emerges opposite Johnson, and with David Nelson in the slot, Fitzpatrick’s ceiling could be 4,000+ yards and 28+ scores.

Lamar Miller, RB (MIA) – Miller needs just to pass up the mediocre Daniel Thomas and have the traditionally fragile Bush return to his usual ways for him to see a significant rookie workload. With the size and speed to excel in the Dolphins zone-blocking scheme, Miller could be this year’s Helu.

Stephen Hill, WR (NYJ) –Hill’s incredible athleticism and tall, lanky build should allow him to make a number of big plays even if he struggles to grasp a pro offense. Those raw abilities combined with the severe lack of depth in the Jets’ receiving corps will open the door to significant playing time right out of the gate, so his upside makes him an attractive late-round gamble.

David Nelson, WR (BUF) – A move back to the slot should do wonders for Nelson’s production. Before shifting outside after Donald Jones was hurt, he’d totaled 20 catches, 233 yards and a score in just the first three weeks of 2011. He could be a PPR stud and should challenge for the team-lead in touchdown catches.

Daniel Thomas, RB (MIA) – Though I’ve knocked Thomas for his unimpressive rookie year (3.5 YPC, no rushing scores), he did battle hamstring issues and could have a higher ceiling than the sum of his production suggests. In his first two games he rushed for 202 yards at 5.0 YPC and tallied his only score of the year. If Bush’s injury history repeats itself and Miller struggles to catch on, Thomas could surprise. If his price tag is still cheap in August, he’s worth the cost.

Top IDP’s

Nick Barnett, LB (BUF) – Although he may not be able to replicate the 130 total tackles he posted in 2011 with the Bills switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense and him moving to outside linebacker, Barnett should still be an active playmaker and at least a No. 2 IDP backer.

Jerod Mayo, LB (NE) – After a dominant 2010, Mayo had 80 fewer total tackles last year while dealing with a sprained MCL that cost him two games. And though the Patriots added another hard hitting linebacker in the first round, there’s no reason to think Mayo can’t bounce back to his 100+ tackle ways and be a consistent force.

Jairus Byrd, DB (BUF) – In his three years in the league Byrd has done a little bit of everything, posting a ridiculous nine picks as a rookie and then following that up with seasons of 89 and 98 total tackles respectively. Few defensive backs are safer or carry more upside.

George Wilson, DB (BUF) – Wilson turned in a career year by posting over 100 total tackles and four picks in just 13 games in 2011. And with at least five solo tackles in 10 of those contests, he proved himself to be one of the most consistent IDP producers in the league.

David Harris, LB (NYJ) – Harris saved an otherwise down year by registering five sacks and a career-high four picks in 2011. Prior to his meager 86 total tackles last year though, Harris posted 353 in his other three full seasons. Expect a bounce-back.

Mario Williams, DE (BUF) – Though Williams has not consistently posted the elite sack totals you would expect from a player with his superior physical gifts, he was never fortunate enough to play on a defensive line with as much talent surrounding him. With his teammates creating other tough matchups, an explosive sack season could be forthcoming from Super Mario.

Yeremiah Bell, DB (NYJ) – Over the past four years Bell’s finished with at least 100 total tackles in each season and placed among the top-10 in solo tackles by a DB all four years, with three top-5 finishes. He should slide right into the Jets’ starting lineup and challenge Harris for the team-lead in tackles.

Kelvin Sheppard, LB (BUF) – This young linebacker has sleeper status written all over him. Starting in the middle of the Bills’ revamped 4-3 defense behind a potentially elite line, Sheppard should be regularly freed up to rack up the tackles.

Karlos Dansby, LB (MIA) – Dansby has posted over a 100 total tackles in three of the past four seasons. The Dolphins will switch to a 4-3 defense in 2012 and as the man in the middle behind what could be an awful front four, count on Dansby making it four out of five years.

Devin McCourty, DB (NE) – Though McCourty’s interceptions dipped from seven to two in his second season, he’s totaled over 80 tackles in each year despite missing two games in 2011, making him a safe IDP with upside.

Kyle Arrington, DB (NE) – Teams will be throwing a ton on New England just to keep pace with their high-powered offense. That means Arrington will have plenty of chances to duplicate the 88 total tackles and seven picks he notched in a breakout 2011 campaign.

Cameron Wake, DE (MIA) – A move from outside linebacker in a 3-4 to a defensive end in a 4-3 scheme will either invigorate this pass rushing specialist and lead to a big sack season, or it will crush Wake’s value altogether, as he’s a bit undersized to play end.

Quinton Coples, DE (NYJ) – The Jets have been a 3-4 defensive team since the arrival of Rex Ryan, but for the first time they could play primarily out of a 4-3 base. If that does happen, Coples needs to be on the IDP radar. His physical gifts compare favorably to a Julius Peppers or Mario Williams type, and you can bet Ryan will get the most out his suspect motor.

Schedule

The AFC East squares off with the AFC South & NFC West in 2012.

New England Patriots

Bye Week: 9

Playoff Match-ups:
Week 14 vs. Houston
Week 15 vs. San Francisco
Week 16 @ Jacksonville
Week 17 vs. Miami

Overall: The Patriots will get tested early by three road games at the Ravens, Bills and Seahawks and get the Texans and Niners back-to-back to begin the playoffs, but those five games aside, the schedule is fairly light. And given their embarrassment of riches in the passing game and Brady’s magical arm, no match-up should slow down the McDaniels Machine.

New York Jets

Bye Week: 9

Playoff Match-ups:
Week 14 @ Jacksonville
Week 15 @ Tennessee
Week 16 vs. San Diego
Week 17 @ Buffalo

Overall: There are some miserable early-season roadblocks with a trip to the Steelers and visits from the Niners and Texans, but past the midway point of the season it’s relatively smooth sailing. The issue for any Jets player though is that the offense could look entirely different by that point if Tebow Mania sweeps through Metlife Stadium.

Miami Dolphins

Bye Week: 7

Playoff Match-ups:
Week 14 @ San Francisco
Week 15 vs. Jacksonville
Week 16 vs. Buffalo
Week 17 @ New England

Overall: Any defenses can be tough to move the ball and score on when your offense lacks firepower. With a brutal road schedule lowlighted by stops at the Texans and 49ers, and visits from the Bills, Seahawks and Jets, the Dolphins and their bottom-of-the-barrel passing game will struggle to do much of anything.

Buffalo Bills

Bye Week: 8

Playoff Match-ups:
Week 14 vs. St. Louis
Week 15 vs. Seattle (in Toronto)
Week 16 @ Miami
Week 17 vs. New York Jets

Overall: Trips to the Jets, Niners, Cardinals and Texans and a visit from the Chiefs make the first half of the schedule daunting, but the second half should make up for it with just the Seahawks in Canada and the Jets at home as tough competition.

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