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Top 20 ADP Risers
Written By: Howard Bender on 2/15/2012 11:31 AMBefore we discuss the Top 20 ADP Risers over the last two weeks, allow me to re-iterate a little something to avoid confusion. ADP rankings are not a substitute for actual player rankings. They are merely a guideline for you to use that should help you get a better understanding as to where Joe Blow Fantasy Player is apparently taking a particular player. You should have your own rankings, whether you use your own or those of a particular expert or web site, and use ADP as a resource to determine whether or not you should take a guy now or possibly wait another round or two and grab someone else that may be a little more popular but has a reasonably equivalent value. That being said, let’s take a look at the Top 20 ADP Risers and see whose popularity may be increasing and why.
Top 20 ADP Risers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
| Travis Hafner | 255.40 | 10.1% | 281.25 | 31.6% | 370.17 | 44.9% |
| Eric Thames | 217.62 | -0.6% | 216.34 | 42.4% | 308.13 | 41.6% |
| Chris Davis | 267.81 | 0.8% | 269.87 | 34.1% | 361.90 | 35.1% |
| Wei-Yen Chen | 345.36 | 29.9% | 448.76 | 0.9% | 452.89 | 31.1% |
| Brad Lidge | 223.34 | 49.1% | 332.95 | -14.3% | 285.38 | 27.8% |
| Jacob Turner | 271.94 | 0.0% | 271.94 | 27.4% | 346.39 | 27.4% |
| Scott Sizemore | 298.83 | 8.3% | 323.64 | 17.6% | 380.51 | 27.3% |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 275.04 | -7.9% | 253.33 | 37.6% | 348.46 | 26.7% |
| Guillermo Moscoso | 261.60 | 0.4% | 262.64 | 24.4% | 326.74 | 24.9% |
| Jerry Sands | 254.36 | 0.0% | 254.36 | 22.8% | 312.27 | 22.8% |
| David DeJesus | 278.15 | 19.7% | 332.95 | 1.2% | 337.08 | 21.2% |
| Marlon Byrd | 293.66 | 0.0% | 293.66 | 20.8% | 354.66 | 20.8% |
| Bryan LaHair | 224.48 | 13.3% | 254.36 | 5.7% | 268.84 | 19.8% |
| Ryan Theriot | 272.98 | 6.8% | 291.59 | 11.3% | 324.68 | 18.9% |
| Taylor Teagarden | 376.38 | 17.3% | 441.52 | 0.2% | 442.55 | 17.6% |
| Brandon Lyon | 235.75 | 10.5% | 260.57 | 5.6% | 275.04 | 16.7% |
| Wilin Rosario | 284.25 | 24.0% | 352.59 | -6.7% | 328.81 | 15.6% |
| Eduardo Nunez | 259.53 | 6.0% | 275.04 | 8.3% | 297.79 | 14.7% |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2.52 | -4.0% | 2.42 | 18.2% | 2.86 | 13.5% |
| Kyle Lohse | 230.38 | -1.8% | 226.45 | 15.1% | 260.57 | 13.0% |
Maybe it was the rumors that the Indians were going to send him to the Yankees in exchange for A.J. Burnett or maybe more people are platooning players at their utility position and like his splits against right-handed pitching, but whatever the case may be, Travis Hafner has taken a significant increase, 44.9% to be exact, in the ADP rankings. As you can see in the week to week numbers, that things have cooled somewhat, but he’s gone from being completely undrafted or a last round flyer to atleast a 21st round option for bench depth. Recommending him is a different story, but atleast you know that when you’re digging for late round sleepers, someone in your league is going to choose him instead of your guy.
Blue Jays outfielder Eric Thames was actually brought up recently as a player on the rise to watch, but what should also be noted is that, as of today, he’s seen a 41.6% increase that should be compared to the 32.6% increase just two days ago. Pretty popular, right? However, you’ll see that he has a -0.6% variance over the last week. If you haven’t noticed, the ADP ranks are not exactly cumulative for all mock drafts done. The data you are reviewing is over a two week span that ends as of the day you are looking at the page. Notice there are 806 qualifying drafts as of today. Two days ago, we were looking at 840. And upward trend is still a good indicator of a player’s increased popularity, but make sure you are looking at all of the numbers and not just the overall trend.
Perhaps last year’s rumors of the Nationals shopping Drew Storen are hitting home with a lot of believers in Brad Lidge or perhaps more leagues that count holds are doing mock drafts. Either way, the 27.8% increase (49.1% in just the last seven days) seems a bit odd. He had an enhanced MRI before signing with Washington and all was clear, but even taking Lidge in the 18th or 19th round seems strange for leagues outside of deep NL-only ones.
Still relatively anonymous given his current ADP rank, Wei-Yen Chen is growing in popularity in some circles as the 26-year old lefty has seen a 31.1% increase with the majority of it coming in the last seven days. There is still a chance that he begins the season in the minors, but the Orioles have every intention of having him in the rotation at some point this season.
Though the hype seems to have died out over this past week, but plenty of people have been taking a chance on Chris Davis this year. He’s still just a late round option, but you’d have to think that if the orioles are willing to put up with Mark Reynolds and his inane strikeout totals in exchange for 35-plus home runs, then they are likely to give Davis a longer leash than Texas ever did. Solid late round corner infield option.
The Tigers are floating the possibility of Jacob Turner landing the 5th starter’s job this season so couple that with his prospect hype and you’ve got reason for his 27.4% increase. Long term keeper and dynasty leagues have certainly kept him on their radar and now re-draft leagues will start to watch him in the later rounds. What should be interesting is to see where his ground ball and fly ball splits end up with more time in the majors. With Miguel Cabrera moving to third, not many people are putting their faith into Detroit ground ball pitchers.
Despite the lack of depth at the third base position, Scott Sizemore (ADP – 298.83) is still barely on people’s radar. Yes, he has seen an increase of 27.3% over the last two weeks, but he is still so far down the list that he should be available to you via the waiver wire once the season begins.
It looks like more two catcher leagues are doing some recent mock drafting which would explain Yorvit Torealba’s 26.7% increase, but his -7.9% drop in the past week shows that he’s still not a great fantasy commodity so long as the Rangers need to find a place for Mike Napoli, Michael Young and Mitch Moreland.
Maybe people were just blindly looking at his name and last year’s basic stat line, which would possibly explain Guillermo Moscoso’s 24.9% increase. However, look a little closer and you’ll see that this fly-ball pitcher who had an FIP of 4.23 compared to his 3.38 ERA is moving from pitcher-friendly Oakland to hitter-friendly Colorado and you’ll think more twice about drafting him.
Jerry Sands seems to be gaining in popularity these days given his 22.8% increase from the undrafted to late round depth option. Maybe no one has any faith in Juan Rivera holding down the job or Tony Gwynn, Jr. being a viable backup. Maybe no one has any faith in Andre Ethier staying healthy this year. Either way, Sands is on people’s radar again in the later rounds.
Apparently people believe in a rebound for David DeJesus as the Cubs new right fielder. He claims that he is now 100% healthy after suffering from hand issues all last year, but given his usual production totals, he’s still just a late round option. He should play regularly as the team has more pressing concerns in the outfield involving Alfonso Soriano and Marlon Byrd, two guys the team is looking to dump off in a trade somewhere.
Staying with the Cubs, Bryan LaHair continues to climb the ADP rankings. Again, he was just recently covered in the outfielder ADP trends, and his ascension could be well worth your attention. He’s a low risk option down in the latter part of your draft but could have some big power upside if he continues his recent success.
And finally, keep an eye on Ryan Theriot’s 18.9% increase as the trend could continue throughout the spring. The Giants say they want to use Brandon Crawford as their starting shortstop, but given his light-hitting ways and weak on-base skills, Theriot could end up yanking this job away from him.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire, FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
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