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Top 12 ADP Risers and Fallers for Mixed Leagues

Written By: Howard Bender on 1/25/2012 1:49 PM
When we looked at the ADP trends developing in the top 20 a couple of days ago, it was with the hope of seeing how your first two rounds are most likely going to pan out.  After all, your first few picks are the foundation for your team and the rest of your draft direction hinges on which players you have chosen.  Today it’s time to take a few steps further in and look at some of the biggest risers and fallers in drafts thus far.  Hopefully, with this information you will have an easier time adjusting your in-draft strategy as that tends to change the further along you go into your draft.

Top 12 Risers



Player POS Current ADP Change 1 Week Ago Change 2 Weeks Ago Overall Trend
5) Troy Tulowitzki SS 4.72 30.1% 6.14 25.7% 7.72 63.6%
3) Miguel Cabrera 1B 3.19 29.5% 4.13 17.9% 4.87 52.7%
4) Jose Bautista OF 4.21 29.2% 5.44 11.6% 6.07 44.2%
380) Chris Capuano SP 272.98 -9.9% 246.09 42.9% 351.56 28.8%
102) Matt Moore SP 103.66 2.1% 105.83 21.9% 128.96 24.4%
225) Chipper Jones 3B 218.79 13.9% 249.19 9.1% 271.94 24.3%
11) Robinson Cano 2B 9.89 13.0% 11.18 9.4% 12.23 23.7%
332) Nolan Reimold OF 240.92 8.6% 261.60 13.8% 297.79 23.6%
81) Mike Morse 1B 82.41 12.5% 92.71 9.2% 101.27 22.9%
2) Albert Pujols 1B 2.41 11.2% 2.68 10.1% 2.95 22.4%
265) Nick Hundley C 227.40 15.9% 263.67 4.7% 276.08 21.4%
321) Greg Holland RP 236.79 17.0% 277.11 2.6% 284.35 20.1%


The biggest climb is pretty understandable given Troy Tulowitzki’s numbers, track record and the current state of the shortstop position.   With both Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes dealing with injuries and declines in production, Tulo remains the only shortstop that you can, more or less, rely upon for a .300-plus average with roughly 30 home runs and 90-100 RBI.  Though his 63.6% increase really only translates to a few picks in the overall, it shows just how valuable he is viewed given the level of talent that remains on the board after he is gone.  The others might be worth a gamble if they fall far enough, but for consistency and the pleasure of owning him during his 27th birth year (a peak age for hitters), you’re going to have to pay.

Both Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista have seen an increase as they are looking more and more worthy of a top 3 overall selection.  Both have seen their ADP jump over this past week and that trend should continue until they just can’t get picked higher than they already are.  Cabrera has long been a coveted first baseman, but watch the increase continue now that Prince Fielder is on board in Detroit.  Bautista will also continue to rise as more and more fantasy owners decide to use him at third base (25 games played at third in 2011).

You can probably say the same for both Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols.  Both will likely see a slight increase over time and deservedly so.  Either one makes for a tremendous pick in the first round.  Pujols because he’s…well…Pujols, and Cano because he has a significant separation of talent from most of the remaining second basemen.

Chris Capuano makes an interesting splash in the risers column.  He just completed his first full season since his second Tommy John surgery, stays in a pitcher’s park with a move to the Dodgers and can contribute in strikeouts, so long as he remains healthy.  But his presence here probably has more to do with deeper leagues drafting rather than his talent base.  He saw a 42.9% increase two weeks ago, but has dropped by a little more than 9% since.  That tells me he went undrafted for most of the early mock drafts and his ADP is actually stabilizing right now where he is currently being taken.

As I mentioned in the last piece, watching Matt Moore’s ADP rise like this is taking away any possible sleeper status that he may have had.  The hype is big, the expectations are high, and if you really want him, you are likely going to have plenty of competition which probably means a reach in picks or an overpay in auctions.

Chipper Jones is on the rise, likely because of just how shallow the third base position is while Mike Morse climbs out of the shadows after a 31 home run season.  Yes, first base is deep, but that kind of power is tough to come by and fantasy owners know it.

Nolan Reimold seems to be getting a nice boost due to the situation in Baltimore.  The team has spots open for left field and DH right now and it looks like Reimold is the one that will benefit the most.  Whether Buck Showalter tries to platoon things as a patchwork system or not, Reimold looks to stand the best chance of getting consistent at bats with the other candidates for the job left rummaging for the scraps.

Suddenly Nick Hundley is getting more and more attention and it is dramatically improving his ADP and ruining his sleeper status altogether.  Perhaps people are paying attention to the fact that he his .389 in August of last season and .351 in September, all after he had surgery to clean up his elbow.  He comes into camp as the Padres lead backstop and should produce at a strong level.

And finally, the strange rise of Greg Holland.  He’s the primary set-up man in Kansas City but still sits behind Joakim Soria for save chances.  Maybe people are finally catching up to the Soria trade rumors from a while back or they truly believe that Holland will eventually supplant him as the team’s closer.  Maybe there are more leagues that count holds that are drafting.  Whatever the case may be, there are enough people looking into drafting him for you to just keep him on your radar and where it goes with him this season.

Top 12 Fallers



Player POS Current ADP Change 1 Week Ago Change 2 Weeks Ago Overall Trend
130) Victor Martinez C 131.82 -64.2% 47.19 3.5% 48.86 -62.9%
397) Bryan LaHair OF 296.76 -26.7% 217.45 3.7% 225.41 -24.0%
389) Ryan Franklin RP 281.25 -14.7% 239.89 -5.7% 226.24 -19.6%
391) Brandon Lyon RP 282.28 -13.2% 245.06 -7.2% 227.39 -19.4%
393) Rod Barajas C 284.35 -18.9% 230.47 2.0% 235.05 -17.3%
385) Homer Bailey SP 276.08 -10.1% 248.16 -7.9% 228.64 -17.2%
381) Brian Matusz SP 274.01 -9.1% 249.19 -8.9% 226.94 -17.2%
372) Aubrey Huff 1B 266.77 -15.9% 224.28 -0.8% 222.46 -16.6%
376) Denard Span OF 268.84 -13.5% 232.65 -3.3% 224.98 -16.3%
15) Clayton Kershaw SP 15.03 -17.2% 12.45 1.6% 12.65 -15.8%
1) Matt Kemp OF 1.54 -11.7% 1.36 -4.4% 1.30 -15.6%
14) Roy Halladay SP 14.70 -9.4% 13.32 -5.0% 12.66 -13.9%


Going over the players with the biggest drops in ADP was a little trickier here this early in the season.  While there are 462 drafts worth of data at which to look, I needed to limit it to the top 400 players due to the size of leagues reporting.  I used a base of a 15 team league, 25 rounds per draft and then factored in an additional 25 players due to keeper leagues.  Most of the players at the bottom of the overall ADP trend report (beyond the top 400) saw a significant decrease in their ADP trend due to the fact that most of the players went completely undrafted in leagues with less than 15 teams.  I mean really, who’s drafting Brent Lillibridge in a 12 team league anyway…?

Most of the players we do have listed here, though, have some significant things going that have affected their current ADP…

Obviously Victor Martinez will continue to plummet the more non-keeper leagues we have drafting.  He is missing the entire 2012 season with a torn ACL and only has value in deep keeper leagues right now.

People actually started to take notice of Bryan LaHair a few weeks ago, and while he may not have been anyone’s top choice at first base, he was definitely being looked at as a corner infield sleeper.  However, when the Cubs made the deal to acquire Anthony Rizzo, LaHair’s stock started to drop.  He’ll probably start to stabilize soon, but now people are waiting to see what the Cubs do and whether or not LaHair even starts the season as the team’s first baseman.

While it’s a little strange to see Brandon Lyon’s ADP continuing to drop (after all, he is the closer for the Astros with Mark Melancon out of the picture), it’s no surprise that Ryan Franklin is taking a hit in the rankings with the announcement of his retirement.  It shouldn’t be too long before he disappears altogether.

The drop for Rod Barajas is also a bit of a no-brainer.  He’s been on the decline and while he may have a job in Pittsburgh right now, it’s not too long before Jason Jaramillo starts poaching at bats.

Both Homer Bailey and Brian Matusz are seeing their stock hit some all-time lows here.  Neither has developed into the starter that he was supposed to be and with such depth at pitching, very few people are really willing to take the chance on them.

And speaking of the depth at pitching, that’s really the only explanation for the drops in ADP for both Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw.  Both are considered top flight pitchers, but with offense being the name of the game, people are starting to wait on building their rotations.  Neither will last beyond the second round, but fewer people are buying into the pitching-first mentality.

Obviously, Matt Kemp’s drop is based on personal preference than anything else.  Early on he was being grabbed first by those drafting ahead of schedule, but now with Pujols signed by the Angels, it’s business as usual.  It should be long before the two swap places on the ADP listings.

And finally, there are the declines for Aubrey Huff and Denard Span.  Pretty easy to tell why, especially if you’ve tracked them and their teams recently.  San Francisco is talking plenty about getting both Buster Posey and Brandon Belt time at first base and considering Huff’s shortcomings as a defensive outfielder, his playing time could get chopped this season.  The Twins have said that Span is their starting center fielder, but with him experiencing all the concussion issues from last season, his value is limited to only the deeper leagues where you can afford to take some risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire, FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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